1/18 by the numbers

[gburch]

I'm going to start a thread on some questions I've asked here before, in hopes of attracting the best sources of information. The general subject is trying to find out some QUANTITATIVE information about 1/18 products -- how many and how much, basically.

I suspect we have some forum members who have pretty good information on these things. I doubt the info is secret. Instead, I suspect that it may be a case of those who know not knowing that others might want to know these things -- or even assuming that the information is more widely known than in fact it is. (Or, alternatively, maybe most people know these things and I'm just more ignorant than average -- a distinct possibility.) With that introduction, here's a preliminary list of quantitative questions:

HOW MANY?

• What were the original production runs of the "Golden Age" 21st and BBI items?
  Were there just one run of the originals and repaints, or were there multiple production runs of a single paint scheme?
  What are the production runs of current products (JSI is really the only one, I guess)?
  How many of the original run Golden Age items remain in NIB condition?
  Are there known stashes of original items in NIB condition?

HOW MUCH?

• What were the development costs (i.e. cost to get to the first complete item) for the original Golden Age products?
  What was the production cost of a complete run?
  What's the marginal cost and per-item cost decline in volume production?
  What were profit margins like on the original Golden Age items (i.e. given the answers to the above "how much" questions, how much more was being spent on logistics, promotion and distribution?
  What is the profit margin on current, pure e-tailer distribution items like JSI's?

I know some of these are probably unknowable, even by insiders, but I'm sure some people can make pretty good educated guesses at the answers.

I'm also sure there are other important quantitative questions. If you can think of them, post them here. Maybe we can smoke out the real insiders for some good info.

[[CAT]CplSlade]

I can't speak with regard to all your questions, but I'm fairly sure each scheme had its own production run (at least if the sticker on the box is to be believed) so if you had six paint schemes you should end up with about 30,000 pieces total. I base that on the 1/32 airplanes which according to the sticker were in runs of 5000.

How that applies to the armor I'm not sure as none of my boxes have a sticker giving a number - I find that only on the aircraft. And as I don't have much 1/18 I'm not sure if that holds true for that scale.

[tmanthegreat]

I have absolutely no idea, save for the 5000 examples of a repaint for certain 32x planes based on the stickers... The 30,000 pieces sounds like a good estimate.

Unless we get some sort of authoritative input (i.e. TKO211 or some of our small retailers or someone like that) one way we could roughlly calculate this is with the numbers of items we recall seeing on the shelves or recall seeing in cases at Wal Mart and then extrapolate that by numbers of stores per community that typically got XD products. It was unequal distribution, but typically, at least one Wal Mart in a general area got items... That would give us some idea... It leaves out the small retailers, however.

[Jesse James]

I can speak to other companies guarding that kind of information pretty closely, and so I'd be surprised if 21st or BBI or whoever were loose-lipped on production quantities, prices/margins, etc.

[gburch]

I can speak to other companies guarding that kind of information pretty closely, and so I'd be surprised if 21st or BBI or whoever were loose-lipped on production quantities, prices/margins, etc.

I assume that's true, but much time has passed, the 21st people have been dispersed and there's been time for etailers and collectors to put together a picture of how big the original production runs were.

[normandy]

[gburch]

most excellent!

[B17Fortress]

Normandy, how did you manage to get a picture of my basement?

[MCalamari]

Perhaps the BEST closing to a movie or story ever.

To carry this a step further, no doubt that AllGo, BBI, and JSI have "Top Men" working on an answer to the question of how many 1:18 planes were made in the heyday. Who? Top, Men.

[Threetoughtrucks]

So, is someone writing a best seller on 1/18 toy and dolly production? Sounds like a real page turner to me.

Why would anybody care for these numbers? It is past history, old and forgotten.

Besides the 5000 production run figure that has been thrown around for years. Most of the rest of the numbers will never be realeased to the common folk.......us.

TTT

[gburch]

So, is someone writing a best seller on 1/18 toy and dolly production? Sounds like a real page turner to me.

Why would anybody care for these numbers? It is past history, old and forgotten.

Besides the 5000 production run figure that has been thrown around for years. Most of the rest of the numbers will never be realeased to the common folk.......us.

TTT

No ... but in some other geeky interests I've had in the past, numbers were better known. Classic cars, for instance.

Honestly, I have two things in mind. The first is to get a better appreciation for the rarity of the pieces I have and those I'd like to have. Why are the Corsairs and P-47s relatively easy to come by, but I still haven't been able to get my hands on a Spit or a Cobra? I have to assume it's because there were more of the former (even taking repaints into account), but it would be nice to have at least a rough idea of relative rarity.

The second is having some quantitative handle on why it seems so damned difficult to get new product to market. Yes, the mismatch between demand and the cost of production and distribution is obviously the answer. But just how big is the mismatch? Is it so big that we might as well give up on the idea of anyone ever establishing a stable business producing 1/18 again? Or is it a matter of the people who might try such a thing being only a little short of making the cost and demand curves meet?

We all assume that the folks who are making a go at trying to get the scale restarted have all the information and ideas and skills they need -- but who knows? Maybe there's some idea or expertise out there that would be available in the community if knowledge about the production process and the market was more widespread. Maybe if there was a closer cooperation among the etailers, the potential producers and the buyers some new business model might be developed? Maybe there are middle-men that could be cut out? Who knows? I'm just wondering ...

[[CAT]CplSlade]

So, is someone writing a best seller on 1/18 toy and dolly production? Sounds like a real page turner to me.

Why would anybody care for these numbers? It is past history, old and forgotten.

Besides the 5000 production run figure that has been thrown around for years. Most of the rest of the numbers will never be realeased to the common folk.......us.

TTT

Actually quite a few people care about that stuff. Don't buy it if you don't like it.

[MCalamari]

So, is someone writing a best seller on 1/18 toy and dolly production? Sounds like a real page turner to me.

Why would anybody care for these numbers? It is past history, old and forgotten.

Besides the 5000 production run figure that has been thrown around for years. Most of the rest of the numbers will never be realeased to the common folk.......us.

TTT

I'm sure somebody had a similar comment in 1950 concerning pre-war tin plate Lionel trains as well ... fortunately people were able to piece together the information from then to present. And by people I am thinking Greenberg's who now make a killing publishing the same basic price guide each year.

I've also remember a friend giving me an article from the Haas School of Business's journal concerning the economics of short packing toys. While the peer reviewed business article was neither a page turner or best seller, the short read was interesting to toy collectors.

-M

[Buckyroo]

[quote="gburch"].

.... Why are the Corsairs and P-47s relatively easy to come by, but I still haven't been able to get my hands on a Spit or a Cobra? I have to assume it's because there were more of the former (even taking repaints into account), but it would be nice to have at least a rough idea of relative rarity.

quote]

Stories have been told that the Spitfire mold was damaged in a manufacturing accident. I don't recall hearing anything about the Cobra though I wouldn't pay attention to the Cobra information anyway for I am a fixed wing fan.