Why the explosion of prices in 1/18 scale

[Coreyeagle48]

Greetings:

Well certainly if you read the forum you have heard about the prices and demand going up for certain 1/18 scale items. Someone in the other thread asked the question why it is happening. Here are some my thoughts as to why that may be occuring. I invite everyone to offer their own thoughts and feel free to disagree.

1.) Scarce Items- I think some items have grown scarce at the online retailers and even in the Walmart stores. Many of us have mentioned that the Walmarts are cleared out of XD items right now. This may have concerned collectors who do not have a particular piece and want it fearing they may not see the piece at their Walmart or can't find the piece at their favorite online store or hobby shop.

2. Lack of 07 items-We have seen very little new in 07 in the 1/18 scale with the Hellcat being the major new item. This perhaps has fueled people to spend money on items they do not have or passed up the first time around. To be in the hobby you want to keep collecting and having fun. This year would be the perfect year for a person to catch up on some missing items in their collections with the lack of new XD to be bought in stores.

3. The future of XD-We have discussed the very future of XD and increased costs this year. It is no secret we probably have lots of people read this board that do not post. No doubt the lack of new products may have also gotten people thinking the line may slowing be going by the wayside. People who believe this is true are buying items now, as the prices they feel would go higher if the line would ever be officially cancelled.

4. More interest-These items do generate interest, any new collector will more than likely purchase a lot early on to establish a collection. New collectors are also more willing to pay higher prices to obtain items they missed in order to have them.

5. New shipping costs-It's already been rumored that postal rates could go up again by 2009 or sooner. There is also serious talk of DHL and UPS raising their rates again. The cost of these items in the future will be more with their shipping charges. Better to buy them now and wait and pay more shipping.

Feel free to chime in

Corey

[mccarthy1028]

maybe the retailers are fudging on the supply, saying its low so that the demand goes up and essentially so does the price... just my suggestion... Just Kidding
-MIKE-

[sluff]

I agree with point #1 I have noticed a serious lack of any new products anywhere, not only XD but anything new for GI Joe, Star Wars, Marvel Legends, and Transformer as well, I wonder if this has to do with all the problems in China? Bad QC and most of the Chinese preparations for the olympics.

[FieroDude]

Must have the preciousssss... take it from the stupid hobbitsesssss....

Oh, wait--wrong forum.

I tend to suspect two factors:
1) the general lack of items at WM, and new items especially, is sending people to different sources, including filling in the gaps in their collections.

2) Combine that with increased interest: This is the first time that 1/18 miltaria has been in 3 major retail outlets at once that I can think of. I suspect that has triggered some added interest, as well.

The next step could be interesting. Something similar happened recently with a line of figures I collect. 3 years ago, I was picking up figures for between $15 and $20 each, and passed on a few then that I either paid dearly for later or had to give up on. Within a couple years, prices were through the roof, with loose figures often breaking $60-80, some high-demand pieces breaking $200, and very limited release pieces (500 or less) bringing $800-$1200--and there were quite a few listed on e-bay. Now, when I do a search on ebay, I find almost no hits. I don't know if supply has dried up, or demand has faded due to the high prices and thus no one offers them.
We may see something similar with XD at some point, I suspect.

[tmanthegreat]

I think the scarcity and lack of new items for 2007 may be part of the explanation. I've even bought a couple pieces in recent months that I had not intended to get when they were avaliable for retail because there has been nothing new to distract my interest. (I didn't pay through the roof for them, however ) There also has to be greater interest for all 1:18th military products, so I agree with that point as well. Wal Mart, TRU, Target, and a bunch of hobbystores and online retailers all have 1:18 military items, and it is selling for the most part. There must certainly be a demand and that demand is created by far more people than the few hundred of us that are members of this forum!

However, the effect of shipping charges may be stretching it a little. Certainly we collectors, etc. are taking notice of the increased rates, but I think part of the market is more spontaneous. Collectors get something new around the time its released (whether at a retail store or online), because it is new and they want it for their collection. They don't necessairly look to the future and gobble up all they can at the moment because UPS may raise its shipping rates...

Also, I think the idea of collectors grabbing more because the 1:18th line is slowing may be a little off. Usually, when a line becomes less popular, there are fewer people buying the products. Planes, tanks, and figures sit around on store shelves and get discounted eventually because no one buys them (oh wait, that happens all the time ) Either way, with three major retailers now carrying 1:18th products, as well as numerous smaller retailers and online stores, I don't think 1:18 is quite dead yet!

Nevertheless, I am a firm believer that, like most toy lines, 1:18 military products will eventually die as something profitable for mass retail. (I do see it living on as a highly specialized collector's product, though). Peoples attitudes change and so do their buying habits. If, for example, the war in Iraq turns even more sour, it would not surprise me to see a lack of interest in realistic military toys among the general public. For some examples where changing public attitudes (or simply a general lack of interest) lead to the death of a popular toy line, look no further than what happened to the original GI Joe line in the 1970s, the Star Wars line in the mid 1980s, and the original 3 3/4" GI Joe line in the early 1990s.

One more thought: this year has not really been all that bad for our hobby at all! If you want to think of a really bad year for 1:18, look no further than that space between mid 2002 and mid 2003. That was when 21c (then the only major manufacturer of 1:18th military goods) went bankrupt and all we got new in 1:18 were the WC-57 and the M2 Bradley.

Luckily, BBI showed up shortly thereafter, and then 21c went to Wal Mart, saving the future of 1:18th militaria for the time being...

Just my two cents

[Coreyeagle48]

Greetings:

Good thoughts guys.

I think this year is worse for the XD at Walmart only because the last couple of years we have seen lots at different Walmarts for people to go after but this year the supply has dried up considerably. I think people are looking to other sources for items. It is very interesting Tristan chimed into this because Tristan and I often switch off for items and trade. We have been witness through our trades that some items show up on the East Coast and some show up on the West Coast. So maybe the lack of specific items at Walmart has driven up the price somewhat on certain things, not really sure.

I want to make it clear before someone chews my head off that I do not want the 1/18 scale items to die, but I am concerned given the status of the companies and items this year. Seems like they are struggling a bit or have seen a drop in sales. I do think we may see a limit of items in the future as to what they sell, or they may just do figures, we have to see. As FD put it, it will be very interesting to see what comes out in the next couple of years.

I really think one of the reasons the Zero has jumped is because of the Hellcat coming out. There are defintely people buying the Zero because they have gotten the Hellcat and want a enemy plane for it, if they don't already have it. Plus I think there is a general fascination with the Zero. Many average people believe the Pearl Harbor attack was strictly done by the Zeroes, which is not true. But people do believe it. If you ask people about Pearl Harbor, they know about the Arizona and Zeroes. Go figure. I am of course not talking about people who know history:)

As far as shipping costs go, I think it could be an issue in the future. But then, what are people to do. You either have to have it shipped or it sits and you don't have it. I know when you factor in gas driving around looking for the stuff, shipping doesn't seem so bad.

Corey

[FieroDude]

I will be honest: I am not as worried about our scale fading away, at least not completely. I think it has proven itself and its market, recently more than ever. It may shift from Walmart to on-line or TRU. but it won't disappear. If 21st continues to focus on WM, we may see 1/18 shift to other manufacturers. Or 1/18 may shift to TRU and WM will only get 1/32 or smaller, which seems to be the trend now--both new 21st 1/18 vehicle releases have been TRU only. The downside: we may have to face higher prices over the artificially low WM prices. We have seen it with thw PAK-40 Hanomag and M17. I suspect aircraft at TRU will be $50 instead of WMs $40. But I don't see them going away. And with bbi at Target now, that may open up a whole new war for our XD dollars.

In the meantime however, old stuff will continue to go nuts for a while, and new releases will fetch insane prices until distribution catches up.

[Jolly Roger]

i think the half priced Target BBI stuff is finding new customers for the Hobby, and i blame Target. Walmart has nothing to with it, i havent seen a bird at walmart in months.

i think the relative "affordability" of the 25$ Heli's and modern armor
maybe kickstarting some new hobbiests, and now they are looking back and seeing alot of cool stuff is no longer available.


just my thought.

[KAMIKAZE]

3 Panthers on E-bay at almost $200.00 each!

Mark

[Light.Inf.Scout]

My God! And 300 + for a 1/18th Panzer IV. What the hell. Those Panzer IV's sat in my Walmart forever....most of them broken.

[immeww2]

Broken or not, if you have some spare panthers and MKIV's lying around, nows the time to sell im.

[Light.Inf.Scout]

No kidding! I have a couple degrees and dont make enough $$$ to buy that kind of stuff. I need to get a job where they work. Thank God I have my Zeros and Panzer IV's and Panthers etc etc.

[Coreyeagle48]

Greetings:

I have to admit I lost interest in collecting the bigger items mainly due to their cost over the long run. I just could not justify spending $$$ in 1/18 collecting all the stuff when I have little room to display them all. 1/32 is so much more affordable and I do get bigger models every so often. I just don't have the room to store them.

Corey

[mccarthy1028]

Zeros, Panther, Panzers and Tigers Ohh My...
-MIKE-

[Light.Inf.Scout]

Greetings:

I have to admit I lost interest in collecting the bigger items mainly due to their cost over the long run. I just could not justify spending $$$ in 1/18 collecting all the stuff when I have little room to display them all. 1/32 is so much more affordable and I do get bigger models every so often. I just don't have the room to store them.

Corey

Space and $ are an issue with that scale with most people I imagine, including me, but it is just so cool.

[grunt1]

Those $200 panthers, $300 mark IV's and the fact that the Pak 40s and Hanomags whooshed off the shelves in a single season should be sending the message loud and clear to someone that armor is back in the game...

I just hope 21C is listening...