No New 1:32 Scale Sets/Vehicles on the Horizon

[GIToys]

Not to be the voice of gloom and doom, but the economy is in shambles and the dollar is tanking worldwide. Pretty soon, manufacturers overseas will be farming out work to America for cheap production. We're on our way, I'm afraid, to becoming a third-world nation

Having said that, hord your military toys now, because I don't think we'll be seeing much any time soon. Look at the price of single carded GI Joes...up to $7.99! They were $2 cheaper just a few months ago. The handwriting is on the wall for toy production. The price of oil is making it too costly to produce and ship the items we love. We should be happy we've been able to ride this "Golden Age" for as long as we have! Time to return to reality. It is a sad time.
--Mike, gitoys

[Rowsdower]

$7.99? They are $7 everywhere here. Is this some new price hike that hasn't been implemented here yet?

Also if America's economy actually does roll over and die we are going to take a lot of the world with us. The economic catastrophe will be global.

[tmanthegreat]

We're not ready to die (economically) yet, but there are agendas that need to be pushed aside and changes that have to be made. For one, our country needs to learn to live a more efficient lifestyle. People in other industrialized countries seem to be able to do that just fine. There is something simply not right by the fact that the US constitutes around 5% of the world's population yet produces 30% of the world's garbage...

[GIToys]

I stand corrected...I guess those 21C and FoV vehicles and playsets will be rolling in shortly and the Joes will be price cut back down to $5.99 at any time!!!
Woohoo!
--Mike, gitoys

PS, the world has NEVER seen oil at $150 a barrel...we're in uncharted waters; you can't possibly compare the recent past to what we're experiencing now. I wish I could share your optimism.

[tmanthegreat]

Forgot to mention that if this is the "death" of small scale military toys, then that should be expected. The attitudes of retailers and consumers change, and we on this forum are not by any means a majority of the the American pubilc. We are an interesting cross-section, but a minority nevertheless. To assume that XD and 32x will continiue indefinitely is a bit unrealistic. There are many past examples where popular toy lines eventually died. Hasbro's GI Joe line in the 1970s and then again in the 1990s is a classic example - and that was a major toyline from a major retailer, not some fringe group like 21c. If XD eventually goes, then so be it. It will not be the first time something I've collected disappeared. I'll be happy for a time well spent and will go on to something else

[olifant]

I am a strong believer in a free market, and as much as it hurts up front the reduced value of the dollar actually bodes well for the US in many ways. Simply put, our goods are more attractively priced and foreign goods are more expensive. Down side for us on this forum is that toys will be more expensive.

[Panzer_M]

South Afrika makes it's own oil from Coal for about 25-35$ barrel.

Coals can also be converted into liquid fuels like gasoline or diesel by several different processes. The Fischer-Tropsch process of indirect synthesis of liquid hydrocarbons was used in Nazi Germany for many years and is today used by Sasol in South Africa. Coal would be gasified to make syngas (a balanced purified mixture of CO and H2 gas) and the syngas condensed using Fischer-Tropsch catalysts to make light hydrocarbons which are further processed into gasoline and diesel. Syngas can also be converted to methanol, which can be used as a fuel, fuel additive, or further processed into gasoline via the Mobil M-gas process.

A direct liquefaction process Bergius process [8] (liquefaction by hydrogenation) is also available but has not been used outside Germany, where such processes were operated both during World War I and World War II. SASOL in South Africa has experimented with direct hydrogenation. Several other direct liquefaction processes have been developed, among these being the SRC-I and SRC-II (Solvent Refined Coal) processes developed by Gulf Oil and implemented as pilot plants in the United States in the 1960s and 1970s.[9]

Another direct hydrogenation process was explored by the NUS Corporation in 1976 and patented by Wilburn C. Schroeder. The process involved dried, pulverized coal mixed with roughly 1wt% molybdenum catalysts. Hydrogenation occurred by use of high temperature and pressure synthesis gas produced in a separate gasifier. The process ultimately yielded a synthetic crude product, Naphtha, a limited amount of C3/C4 gas, light-medium weight liquids (C5-C10) suitable for use as fuels, small amounts of NH3 and significant amounts of CO2.[10]

Yet another process to manufacture liquid hydrocarbons from coal is low temperature carbonization (LTC). Coal is coked at temperatures between 450 and 700°C compared to 800 to 1000°C for metallurgical coke. These temperatures optimize the production of coal tars richer in lighter hydrocarbons than normal coal tar. The coal tar is then further processed into fuels. The Karrick process was developed by Lewis C. Karrick, an oil shale technologist at the U.S. Bureau of Mines in the 1920s.

All of these liquid fuel production methods release carbon dioxide (CO2) in the conversion process, far more than is released in the extraction and refinement of liquid fuel production from petroleum. If these methods were adopted to replace declining petroleum supplies, carbon dioxide emissions would be greatly increased on a global scale. For future liquefaction projects, Carbon dioxide sequestration is proposed to avoid releasing it into the atmosphere, though no pilot projects have confirmed the feasibility of this approach on a wide scale. As CO2 is one of the process streams, sequestration is easier than from flue gases produced in combustion of coal with air, where CO2 is diluted by nitrogen and other gases. Sequestration will, however, add to the cost.

The reaction of coal and water using high temperature heat from a nuclear reactor offers promise of liquid transport fuels that could prove carbon-neutral compared to petroleum use. The development of a reliable nuclear reactor that could provide 900 to 1000 deg C process heat, such as the pebble bed reactor, would be necessary.

Coal liquefaction is one of the backstop technologies that could potentially limit escalation of oil prices and mitigate the effects of transportation energy shortage that some authors have suggested could occur under peak oil. This is contingent on liquefaction production capacity becoming large enough to satiate the very large and growing demand for petroleum. Estimates of the cost of producing liquid fuels from coal suggest that domestic U.S. production of fuel from coal becomes cost-competitive with oil priced at around 35 USD per barrel,[11] (break-even cost). This price, while above historical averages, is well below current oil prices. This makes coal a viable financial alternative to oil for the time being, although current production is small.[12]

Among commercially mature technologies, advantage for indirect coal liquefaction over direct coal liquefaction are reported by Williams and Larson (2003). Estimates are reported for sites in China where break-even cost for coal liquefaction may be in the range between 25 to 35 USD/barrel of oil.[citation needed]'

Intensive research and project developments have been implemented from 2001. The World CTL Award is granted to personalities having brought eminent contribution to the understanding and development of Coal liquefaction. The 2008 presentation ceremony took place at the World CTL 2008 Conference (3 & 4 April, 2008).

[aktiger]

[[CAT]CplSlade]

It will not be the first time something I've collected disappeared.

Yes, been down that path a few too many times myself.

[aferguson]

Reminder: no political discussion. Some posts have been edited.

The world has certainly seen tougher times and recovered. In my view oil prices won't stay this high much longer because if they don't come down naturally soon then there will be a global recession which will dramatically cut back on demand and hence oil prices will tumble. If we rich north americans and europeans are having a tough time coping with these high gas prices then think what it must be doing to the people in India, China, Brazil, Russia etc. where the increase in demand has come from. They may be planning on buying lots of new cars but they won't be able to run them very much.

Despite arguments to the contrary this price spike in oil is mostly speculation driven and the bubble will burst eventually, one way or the other and lots of people will get burned financially....and the memory of that will last for a long time. There is plenty of oil in the world til about the year 2100.......so our great grandchildren are going to face some unique challenges, but not us.

The problem is, there isn't really a great alternative to oil/gas. Everything else either costs alot, doesn't work great or is disaterous for the enviornment....or all the above.

So, i can forsee a day, 100 years from now, when everyone has incredibly high tech computers on their wrists but are driving to work via horse and buggy, coming home at night to tend the vegatable garden in their back yard.

[Rowsdower]

So, i can forsee a day, 100 years from now, when everyone has incredibly high tech computers on their wrists but are driving to work via horse and buggy, coming home at night to tend the vegatable garden in their back yard.

[olifant]

In counterpoint, I have had no trouble spending $300 a month +/- on toys and my issue is I run out of money before I run out of new releases in 1/18, 1/72, 1/32 and SW/IJ stuff. I am not going to call it dead yet.

[grunt1]

So, i can forsee a day, 100 years from now, when everyone has incredibly high tech computers on their wrists but are driving to work via horse and buggy, coming home at night to tend the vegatable garden in their back yard.

You're not far off. The concept is called New-Urbanism. Many areas across the country including several several large areas where I live are either starting as or switching to this design. It's about more than being green, but distance/walking/biking are big design factors.

I don't see our XD hunting happening on a bike ride anytime soon, but if you combine the Internet (work from home for certain jobs), high fuel prices, and a desire to get back to the old days this concept has a lot of merit and it's very real at least here, New York, Denver, Atlanta, Florida, and many other places.

[Rowsdower]

I'd buy a motorcycle since they get awesome mpg and you can ride year round here but bikers are getting killed on a regular basis in this area thanks to idiot drivers and with the increased number of people riding it just goes up and up

[aferguson]

well, in my experience it's not the idiot drivers, it's the idiots on the motorcycles that get themselves killed, for the most part. Driving too fast, weaving in and out of tight spaces, taking crazy chances etc etc.

Motorcycles/mopeds etc are a good way to go right now but they are limited in usefulness as far as transportation goes (ie they dont' take the place of a minivan with 6 kids in it for example) and if there is no gas then even getting 50mpg isn't too usuful.

This recent spike in fuel costs will hopefully, finally get people to start to conserve, explore alternatives etc. But i live in a big city and while everyone i know complains about the price of gas, very, very few are doing anything concrete about it. I now drive 55mph on the highway, to save gas and i NEVER pass anyone but am continuously being passed by people doing 70+. By slowing down i have saved about 15% off my total gas bill every month. But it seems that people's wallets haven't overpowered their impatience, yet...

It took, how many hundreds of millions of years for the earth's total supply of oil to be produced?.......and we're going to consume it all in about 200 years. I wonder how future generations will view us.

[lightning2000]

Hi,
I agree with you. Motorcycles arent a practical answer, especially when it rains, snows, gets cold, you need to go grocery shopping, take someone somewhere, etc. Frankly, I think we'll all be driving golf carts soon enough, or go the way of the electric tube a la sci-fi.

In all honesty, it takes an event like this to create a paradigm shift in human behavior, whereby we finally explore other means of transport as an alternative to what we are currently relying upon. Likewise, there could very well be a shift in moving manufacturing facilities closer to home, such as Mexico. Product could then be shipped via rail instead of overland by truck or by sea. Even if labor is a bit more expensive in Central America, the added benefit of having the manufacturing facilities closer to home would be welcome news to lots of QC departments. I wouldnt be a bit surprised if several manufacturers are looking into this, hence the dry spell in new diecast and other commodities.

Lightning2000
www.themotorpool.net

[Juneau@1]

Hello,
Just a couple thoughts from someone who collects 1/72 tanks and teaches economics.
1. China is hosting the Olympics which is having a large impact on their economy. It appears that pollution concerns are causing them to shut down some of their manufacturing until they are over. This may be impacting companies in terms of scheduling production.
2. While the price of oil may be high, prices serve as signals. This will force auto companies and others to come up with better mpg cars and other alternative to meet consumer demand. High mileage desiels and cars that run on electric motors with a gas engine back-up are on the way.
3. While the situation may appear bad, relatively speaking it is not as bad as the late 70's/ early 80's. Inflation is lower, interest rates are lowers, and unemployment is lower.
4. The US also has a some very important factors that will help it maintain its world status: a mostly free market economy, a very good college education system, and a comparatively corruption free government.

Eric