Small Scale Military Headquarters

From Badcat's blog:

"1:18 BBI F-16 A Good Barometer For The Market

We've spent our energies this week focusing on the 1:18 BBI F-16 Preorders. We'll be wrapping-up these shipments today and thank everyone who ordered one of these great airplanes. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since the first F-16s debuted in 2005. So, the question of the day is: How do sales for this repaint compare with a similar repaint released in the golden years of 1:18? Answer: About 1/4. Here's why . . .

1. The economy. Obviously the long recession, unemployment, housing distress, credit crunch, etc., finds the collecting public with less discretionary income for these types of purchases. O' Five was pretty much a boom year in comparison.

2. The price. F-16s were about $69.99 in 2005 compared with $169.99 today. This fact alone probably contributes the most to the decline in sales. Since 2005, China has seen at least a 400% increase in wages, the Chinese currency is much stronger against the weak dollar, petroleum related products have risen as the price of crude has more than doubled, and production runs of planes are much, much smaller since the big box stores dropped 1:18 pieces and its collectors like a hot potato. All of these factors have put plenty of upward pressure on airplane prices.

3. Fewer collectors. With few airplanes and tanks to buy in 1:18 scale, many collectors have moved on to other scales or hobbies. One-seventy-two scale has several new toolings appear every months and probably 100+ new repaints, too. By comparison, 1:18 is lucky to get a repaint or two released in an entire year.

The F-16 is not only a sight for sore eyes for collectors, it is a valuable piece of information for retailers and manufacturers throughout the industry. I am occasionally asked by manufacturers, "How much of the market remains"? My estimate for the past couple of years has been 1/5. The F-16 proves to me that the market is slightly better than my estimate.

The remaining manufacturers will have to decide if the 1/4 number represents enough meat on the bone for additional releases. My guess is that it WILL provide enough horsepower for additional repaints using existing tooling assets that are currently idle. However, the demand may not be enough to justify a venture into a new tooling."

There are also alot more etailers around now, as opposed to 2005, so sales will be more spread around and considering Badcat's prices are some of the highest around, while their sales may be 1/4 what they were that doesn't mean overall sales are 1/4 of what they were and it's overall sales that count.

Also, if the people remaining in this hobby are willing to pay double the price they used to (or more) then you don't need as many collectors, you need about half what you had. And if new toolings start appearing lots more people will come into and return to, this scale.

I would have to agree with aferguson, just because one vendor shows a decline doesn't necessarily the market is drying up, as was said there seems to be a lot more competion.

I'm sure there are a lot of people who deal with Badcat and I can't recall anything bad about them, myself I try to find the best price for my dollar and Badcat never has been the lower vendor.

no matter what Etailers or whoever sells 1/18th Military Aircraft and Armor the selection of new products is drying up in a major way...if they're not being produced no matter who has the lowest price the 1/18th scale will go the way of the dinosaurs...

dragon53 wrote:From Badcat's blog:


So, the question of the day is: How do sales for this repaint compare with a similar repaint released in the golden years of 1:18? Answer: About 1/4.

Here's the real answer, your prices are too high and you have reputation issues.

To counter what Badcat is saying, while I was speaking with a rep at TheFlyingMule about my F-16 Preorder, they noted that the planes were selling fast and that they would only have a small batch left over for regular sale... Badcat's prices have gotten high over the years which is why I tend to purchase from them a lot less than I used to.

Yay 1-2 Repaints a year...if that...the 1/18th Scale is boomin ain't it ?... they take a Palomino horse and throw whitewash on it and see who will try and ride it... yah mule...giddy-up

Nice, but being out of scale, and the price is beyond me as a casual jet collector.

The Jets are just too much money to spend these days for the average collector. While the upcoming BBI Hartmann Bf-109G is still reasonable at half the price. That kind of a release and the sales thereof is more of an indicator of what the market will do me thinks.
The Sakai Zero didn't seem to excite collectors as much though, but I think the 109, like the previous S1 version will sell out, and is a better release. We'll see.

Badcat mentioned the delivery date of October for the Hartmann BF-109G.
Probably get a better deal somewhere else though.

Out of all the 1/18 retailers out there, i think Badcat has the most accurate pulse on the market place.

Although their prices are usually on the high side, and I do know they have had some "issues" with forums.

But for a new collector coming into the hobby, they are a good resource. Remember, not every collector is a member of a forum.

And with the demise of the 21C/ Walmart relationship, 1/18 has become a much more niche hobby. You don't get somebody just passing by, and noticing this large model, for a great price. Willing to give it a try. Higher prices, and less exposure are real challenges for manufacturers.

I do agree that this F-16 release will be a barometer for where the hobby stands, for other releases. People have been hoping for BBI to release more of these F-16's and F-18's for years now, and the original releases go for big bucks. So I would expect this release, for half of what the Wolfpack goes for, will do well, although I don't know the production numbers, or BBI's expectations.

If this F-16, and the upcoming Hartmann 109 don't meet BBI's sales goals, can't see them doing the F-18, or any other 1/18 aircraft in the near future.

I am cautiously optimistic about how the new F-16 will do. I am doing my part, and ordering two.

I bought exactly half of what I bought of the F-18 when it was last released a few years ago. Back then, I was not taking pre-orders, so I won't have a good gauge on sell-through comparison for a few months. Back then, I had that F-18 inventory for a good 5-6 months so I will be interested to see how long the F-16 inventory stays. If it sells through by the end of the year then I guess I can say I have 1/2 the 1:18 scale business in these larger items as compared to before. Really, I think that wouldn't be too bad, all things considered.

If BBI is happy with this exercise I think they should re-release most of their modern military line-up. There has always been solid residual sales for me in this category, as compared to something like GI JOE where an item sells great for awhile then suddenly dies dead-dead-dead for an extended period of time.

Then, if BBI makes some money on a re-issue of their line-up I'd like to see them invest it in an A-10 or F-4 Phantom release.