Reprint of Badcat's open letter in 2007:
"1:18 Aircraft -- Four Years of Market Changes
Although it strangely seems like more, Bad Cat was founded four years ago today. While four years doesn't seem like much, the 1:18 aviation toy market has seen tremendous changes. Here's some of the most notable:
1. Selection. In 2003, there were four aircraft available for purchase during the entire year! That's right, four. The F4U, P-38, Mustang, and Stuka. Today we are showing at least 20 1:18 airplanes on the site and that doesn't count all those sold out earlier this year and those yet to be released. Customers often complain about the lack of availability of new pieces but don't realize things are much better now than they were previously in regards to selection.
2. Complexity. The first Lou IV P-51 was built as a toy for children. It was only accidently discovered that the warbirds were being purchased almost exclusively by adult collectors. Collectors are a tough bunch to please and the manufactures have responded to their demands for more accurate models. Compare that Lou IV to the latest Me-262 Yellow 7 and the differences are apparent. Exquisitely detailed cockpits, excellent paint, precise markings of real aircraft (Laura Michelle wouldn't make it today), and moving control surfaces are the norm rather than the exception.
3. Consumer pickiness. It seems laughable but somewhat understandable that I, as an aviation person and not a collector, was in business for three months before I discovered there were two different Corsair schemes in my inventory (Kepford and Korean War). When somebody ordered an F4U (sic "F4Y", remember that one old-timers?) I sent them one, any one, the first one nearest the door. More remarkably, it took three months before any customer called and complained that the one they received was different from the one they ordered! This wouldn't happen today. Today, if we were to send out the wrong version of an airplane, the phone would be ringing before the UPS truck had backed-out of the driveway.
1:18 planes are being returned with more frequency than ever, despite drastic improvements in quality control. These returns come at a rate much higher than those of smaller scales. Yesterday, for example, a BH Avenger was returned for a "scratch" that was no bigger than the head of a pin on the bottom of the left wing. Two-thousand-seven finds us inundated with this type of ridiculous, anal-retentive waste (pun intended) of what is a perfectly good product. Have we become so spoiled, demanding, and helpless as a society that this type of behavior has become the acceptable norm? This trend may well produce negative consequences for the scale as the average return costs us about $30 to process (labor, shipping, credit card fees), in addition to the loss of the sale. We then return the item to the manufacturer where they will write it off as a loss. This frustrating and needless type of lose-lose for both participants of the supply chain is the biggest threat to the scale, in my opinion.
4. No room. Many long-time customers call and tell us they have absolutely, positively no more space in their homes, garages, attics, offices, and hangars. These customers would love another plane but have no place to put it. Moreover, their spouses have had to live with the loss of their dining room table, coffee table, kitchen table, guest bedroom, etc. and one more plane could equal one more bonk on the head with a frying pan. In 03-04 people would buy every paint scheme made. Crummy/unpopular schemes would eventually sell out despite themselves (like the P-38 Louise). Nowadays, even the customers with space often pick one scheme per tooling and that's it. We've reacted to this trend by ordering smaller quantities of new releases and carrying a wider selection of 1:32, 1:48, and 1:72 aircraft.
5. Low Prices. Great news for collectors. We sold 1:18 F4Us in '03 for $59.95. Today the same tooling in the Bunker Hill scheme sells for $49.99. Despite inflation, rising fuel prices, and increased manufacturing costs, the consumer is paying much less today than just four years ago. This is due exclusively to retail competition. The manufacturer's have actually raised the wholesale price to online and independent dealers about 30% since '03. Big box stores are largely exempt from wholesale cost increases as they refuse to allow increases to be built into sales contracts. Increased competition from many additional low-overhead, home-based ecommerce sites have also kept prices down. The result: Great, low prices for the consumer but increasingly less incentive for merchants, especially the new ones, to carry this large, space gobbling, scale.
6. Novelty has worn off. We used to get multiple calls daily that went something like this, "Hello, I've just discovered these beautiful, big planes and I want to order a P-51, P-40, P-38 and an F-18. Man, I wish they made these when I was a kid." Not any more. The secret is out and the honeymoon is over. This conversation happens about once a month, now. But this phenomenon shouldn't be alarming to collectors and it certainly doesn't spell doom for the scale. It simply means 1:18 has entered another phase of its life-cycle, one where it lives or dies on its own merits and the utility it provides.
7. Shipping Costs Skyrocket. Annual price increases, fuel surcharges, dimensional repricing, and some good, old-fashioned price fixing have seen the coast to coast transportation price go completely nut-so. An XD case box with four aircraft going from California to Florida cost about $15 in 2003. Our cost today (most of which is passed-on to the consumer) is nearly $40 bucks! Collector's are PO'd about shipping costs and I don't blame them. Our friends oveaseas have it even worse, much worse as the same case costs $145 to Great Britain, for example. UPS, Fedex, and DHL have collectively gobbled-up the competition. Any new start-ups are quickly consumed, as well. No easy answers here, maybe a letter to a congressman would be appropriate.
8. Knowledgeable Collectors. The customer base has grown increasingly more informed about the subject aircraft. Their knowledge of war history, flight, squadron markings, and the significance of each piece is phenominal. I credit the increased availability and exposure of TV media like the History and Military Channels for much of this. The Internet also has a wealth of information into which customers readily tap and it has revolutionized the ways we communicate and research. Work the phones one day at Bad Cat and a guy can get a serious education from the callers. Many of these old collectors forget in a day what I've learned in a lifetime. Every newby that comes to work at the 'Cat has been both astounded and humbled by the amount of historical knowledge displayed by our fans.
We've seen significant change in the last 1460 days and the 1:18 collector has it pretty darn good in 2007. There's an excellent selection of mainstream warbirds with numerous paint schemes in the marketplace from which to choose, all at the lowest prices ever despite the rise in shipping costs. These models offer details and complexity unmatched in the past. Today's 1:18 consumer is very well informed, has extremely high standards and demands almost fanatical perfection from a $50 mass-produced, preassembled collectible, yet has collected enthusiastically enough to the point where lack of living space is limiting their pursuits. No longer the golden boy of the industry, 1:18 scale sales are off, margins are down, and like its extinct mammoth 1:6 predecessor, the future is cloudy. As the ancient Chinese saying goes: May you live in interesting times ."
Badcat--1/18 in 2007
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AMERICAN_GRENADIER
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