BadCat's Opinion on 1:18 Subjects

[vulgarvulture]

Interesting observations (vs what JSI is considering):

http://www.talesofthecat.com/journal/20 ... jects.html

It's an interesting time in 1:18 scale right now. We have new projects on the horizon but this is the first time in several years the 'Cat doesn't have any 1:18 irons in the Fire. JSI hasn't responded to any of my unsolicited input. BBI will make anything you want as long as you order 3000 pieces or more. Admiral is AWOL. Pegasus has shown much interest of late. And 21st Century is taking a dirt nap.

I may have a different perspective than some of the readers of this blog. Sure, I want the consumer to get what they want, satisfying demand is job #1. If something gets produced and it doesn't sell . . . end of story. Clearance sales are bad, bad news for any scale in any hobby. Internet braggers once gloated and pontificated on the sweet $10 deal they roped on a TBM at Walmart, without realizing that they were simply gathering-up the burnt remains of their hobby. In our hobby, clearance sales are like road kill, free meat but no more animal.

So, I also add a few constraints that favor the supply chain such as small size, low production costs, and a minimization of risk--all important factors that don't normally enter into the endless Internet debates amoung collectors. In the end, the product must sell and there must be profits otherwise nothing gets made. It's not enough to make something then sell it, there has to be some serious money to be made, otherwise the equation falls apart. So, since we're not involved in any projects presently and not holding onto any secrets, here is my Top 5 1:18 scale candidates and why:

1. Me-163--In 1:18 scale, this popular model would be simple, small, available in numerous schemes and very, very popular. Nothing but up-side here. No big props to break (that little generator prop doesn't count). The landing gear is a removable trolley. The wingspan would only be 20 inches. Numerous MRC Easy Model 1:72 schemes all sold well. Its German, and in the military toy business, German sells. All available in a package that would probably retail for less than $50. Elementary, my dear Watson, elementary. In light of this, why are $200+ Su-27s even being considered? Come on manufacturers, wise up, stop reaching, get smart and make this plane.

2 F4F Wildcat--Another diminutive aircraft that can economically manufactured, packaged tightly, painted many different schemes, and sold to everyone! Complexity of the landing gear is the only bugaboo but the 1:32 BBI Wildcat shows this is a non-issue. Previous sales of this plane in other scales are solid but not spectacular.

3. Spitfire IX-- The original Mk I birds by 21st came, went, and fetch great prices on the aftermarket. The pinnacle of all Spits, the mark nine, can be fitted with D-Day stripes and could be ready to adorn collections worldwide. Moderate tooling costs and complexity. This airframe has a solid track record both in 1:18 and other scales. Make a nice plane and it's hard to get hurt here.

4. F4--I've changed my mind on this one. Two false starts already for the Phantom but this plane would sell well and would have many, many really good paint schemes possible including the JR, Viet Camo, TBirds, and Blue Angels, just to name a few. Very high production costs and huge risk but the strong F-14 sales suggest that the F-4 is a gamble worth taking.

5. Piper Cub--Don't laugh. General Aviation seldom does well in other scales because people want to buy a Cessna 172 that looks like the one they own(ed), not somebody else's. Entire the Cub. They are all yellow with a black lightning stripe! These will outsell the GB Racer released by Pegasus and the GB was no slouch in the sales department. On top of this, a military liason scheme could also be produced. Another cheap, small, simple, low risk type of project.

Using the perspective of making something that would benefit both the industry and collectors as group, thus furthering the hobby, and not necessarily what looks best hanging from an individual collector's ceiling, do you Agree or Disagree?

[Panther F]

I'd go for a Piper Cub in yellow paint and a 1950 B35 Beechcraft V-Tailed Bonanza.

[dragon53]

I also vote for a 1/18 F-4 Phantom---in a Steve Ritchie version that 21st Century never released.

[fredricchio]

Wow, thats, um, certainly a different perspective...the only one on his list I would buy is the F-4.

[Dauntless]

It's all about the money and costs of producing these, yet I don't see anyone doing what Picklehaube and, shall I say that usurper of some of his ideas Skyworks, and taking existing models and modifying them.

Seems to me there's money to be made with a lower risk of capital investment by modifying existing molds.
Cases in point:

21st P-51D into P-51 B/C
21st P-40 B into P-40 E
21st Stuka JU-87B into JU-87G

I'd say the 21st Spitfire MK I, but that mold is supposably destroyed.

All very popular aircraft, and some of what I said to myself when I first saw the original models from 21st, "why don't they make these other models" long before I saw PH and Skyworks modify them, but seeing that it was possible opened my eyes to the possibilities.

[Birddog]

I'm not trying to be mean when I say this but, it perplexes me when some retailers say they want the collectors to get what they want and even agree with the collectors that they believe it will be a good seller, but when they are in a crucial posiition to help push the manufacturer towards what the collector wants, their tune changes.

None of those with the exception of two are what collectors have been really asking for.

We finally have a manufacturer that is willing to develope large jets and there is only one on the list.

[Dauntless]

Before 21st went under they were developing the P-51 B/C in 1:18. That's what TKO said, and he would know.

Somebody should have picked up that ball and ran with it! I could imagine some really colorful camo schemes and nose art that would have been a sure hit with the fans. They proved that with the 1:32 P-51 B/C's.

Maybe a light bulb will go off in somebody's head.

[coreystinson]

Wow, thats, um, certainly a different perspective...the only one on his list I would buy is the F-4.

Yeah, I think these guys are basing their sales experiences in smaller scales but I am not sure that translates well to 1:18 scale. As a 1:18 scale collector, I have no real interest in anything they mentioned except the F-4. The Wildcat is an OK idea, but we already have a Hellcat and a Corsair.

[Birddog]

Wow, thats, um, certainly a different perspective...the only one on his list I would buy is the F-4.

Yeah, I think these guys are basing their sales experiences in smaller scales but I am not sure that translates well to 1:18 scale. As a 1:18 scale collector, I have no real interest in anything they mentioned except the F-4. The Wildcat is an OK idea, but we already have a Hellcat and a Corsair.

My point exactly Corey. Basing sales of one scale on another doesn't sound like sound sales projection to me.

[Grilledcheese]

Y'all already know I'm a little off---but I'd buy everything in that list.



Jeffrey

[normandy]

I'd definitely go for a few 1:18th Me-163 Komets. I often wondered why it wasn't made, figured a company like Pegasus would come out with it in kit form. Their V-1 did very well. As stated in the blog the Komets wingspan would be 20 inches, thats nothing in this scale.

[Panther F]

I would roll over for an F4 and F105 Thud in a hurry. I just think commercial aircraft would have a following too, maybe not the ones I pointed out but not everything should be military.

[BELTxFED]

...Internet braggers once gloated and pontificated on the sweet $10 deal they roped on a TBM at Walmart, without realizing that they were simply gathering-up the burnt remains of their hobby.

No, Bad Cat, we here in California "gloated" how we were lucky enough to beat you into Walmart before you got there with your pick up trucks.

Or, we were "pontificating" over having to gather up the remains left over from your locust sweeps of the Central Valley and beyond.

Lest we forget.

[STUKA]

sounds like one of the many opinions from this board......
i guess I was an internet bragger....


also -some have said the internet companies killed the hobby....

opinions opinions opinions......

[tkjaer21]

It is interesting that Badcat used to be at the forefront on getting us 1:18 exclusives. This blog is interesting in it's own right as BadCat has in some way enabled the demise of 1:18 over time by not reserving more exclusives and overpricing them during the last 3 years now, driving collectors (both new and old) away. They should just reissue the F-16 & F-18 for a $115 or less as they would be sellouts. For a company like BBi that will make anything as long as there are 3000 pieces ordered, then Badcat and other online retailers need to be risky as well in order for us to get what we want. The strange thing is in referring to Badcats list of 1:18 wants, I can only see 2 of them being huge successes. They would be the F4 Wildcat and F-4 Phantom II.


Here is what I could see as being instant success and sellouts (in no particular order):

Air:
F-22 Rapter
F4 Wildcat
P-51B/C Mustang
F-4 Phantom II
Hawker Hurricane
H-13 Sioux
A-10 Thunderbolt II

Ground:
HEMTT
M35 2.5 ton Cargo Truck
M26 Dragon Wagon
MRAP (Any Version)
Zündapp KS750 w/ Sidecar

Artillery:
155mm Long Tom w/ M4 High-Speed Tractor
M198 Howitzer

[GooglyDoogly]

This blog is interesting in it's own right as BadCat has in some way enabled the demise of 1:18 over time by not reserving more exclusives and overpricing them during the last 3 years now, driving collectors (both new and old) away.

Huh. That's an odd way of looking at it. So you were expecting Badcat to invest a lot of their own capital to make more exclusives, yet you also criticize them for overpricing their 1/18 products?

[tkjaer21]

This blog is interesting in it's own right as BadCat has in some way enabled the demise of 1:18 over time by not reserving more exclusives and overpricing them during the last 3 years now, driving collectors (both new and old) away.

Huh. That's an odd way of looking at it. So you were expecting Badcat to invest a lot of their own capital to make more exclusives, yet you also criticize them for overpricing their 1/18 products?

They could have easily ordered more F-16 and F-18 planes for example. They would have sold out and helped drive new people or interest into this hobby as well as allowed collectors to get a hold of more for themselves. Instead, they took a different rout by charging 4 to 5 times more than the retail price on items that have been sitting for years by now. I don't think that it would have been a risk at all for them. Buy the plane for what $70 ($210,000) and sell it for $100. ($300,000). $90,000 dollar profit per plane and future business on other sales and loyal customers.

[GooglyDoogly]

They could have easily ordered more F-16 and F-18 planes for example. They would have sold out and helped drive new people or interest into this hobby as well as allowed collectors to get a hold of more for themselves.

From a business stand point, I don't see the point of doing that. They ponied up the cost of getting those exclusives from BBI, they managed to recoup their investment and turned a healthy profit (I'm assuming of course).

So what would be the incentive for them to risk more money to order more F-18s and F-16s, and risking flooding the market with them, and thus potentially driving down the price?

Instead, they took a different rout by charging 4 to 5 times more than the retail price on items that have been sitting for years by now. I don't think that it would have been a risk at all for them. Buy the plane for what $70 ($210,000) and sell it for $100. ($300,000). $90,000 dollar profit per plane and future business on other sales and loyal customers.

While I didn't like those higher prices, in the end, we have no one to blame but ourselves, the collectors.

Who started driving up bids for 1/18th stuff on Ebay? Badcat? No.

Us collectors did that. And that only didn't happen on ebay. Some of the people here also capitalized on the 1/18th sale craze and sold some of their stuff at very high prices. You know who you are.

But hey, that's how economics works. Supply vs demand. An item is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. And us collectors have proven we were willing to pay for it.

Well at least, some of us are.

So did Badcat instigate all of this? No. We. Did.

[coreystinson]

They could have easily ordered more F-16 and F-18 planes for example. They would have sold out and helped drive new people or interest into this hobby as well as allowed collectors to get a hold of more for themselves.

Actually, I think you are probably wrong about that. Bad Cat would have to be crazy to do what you're suggesting. In the marketplace of now and the last several years, an order of 2000+ units of F16/F18 in the hands of one specialty retailer would not have sold through any more than there is a man in the moon. In fact, what many of you guys would have done is swam in circles like sharks waiting for the retailer to capitulate, put them on clearance, and take yet another loss. I've said it before - those days are over. You're not going to see any more of these 2000/3000 piece production runs with Wal-mart pricing. JSI's F-14 will establish whether or not there is a specialty market with deep enough pockets to support this hobby now. I am thrilled that some manufacturer finally took the plunge to try it. Should be interesting to see what happens.

[MCalamari]

I've said it before - those days are over. You're not going to see any more of these 2000/3000 piece production runs with Wal-mart pricing. JSI's F-14 will establish whether or not there is a specialty market with deep enough pockets to support this hobby now. I am thrilled that some manufacturer finally took the plunge to try it. Should be interesting to see what happens.

No debate from me ... I agree with you. I did buy pieces on discount, but I have and continue to also keep in mind that $50-100 is still a steal for the quality of items coming from companies like BBi, JSI, and Admiral. The cheaper FoV stuff is great too!

[MCalamari]

Here is what I could see as being instant success and sellouts (in no particular order):

Air:
Hawker Hurricane
A-10 Thunderbolt II

Artillery:
155mm Long Tom w/ M4 High-Speed Tractor
M198 Howitzer

I think any artillery piece would be great, but given the lack of sales on the Flak 36/37 and Pak 40s I kinda think that market just rests with a few collectors.

For ground pieces, would a Marder III or Stewart do well?

[GooglyDoogly]

In fact, what many of you guys would have done is swam in circles like sharks waiting for the retailer to capitulate, put them on clearance, and take yet another loss.