Is 1/18 dead?

[aferguson]

According to the Badcat blog, 1/18 is dead as a doornail.

Personally, i don't think it will ever die. It will ebb and flow, like most industries do, effected by issues of economy, public opinion etc. But dead? No chance. We've already seen an upswing in after market products and i suspect there will be more to come, perhaps a new player in 1/18 with the mysterious Tomcat, r/c airplanes are getting better and better (in fact, i've had a very good year 1/18 wise thanks in large part to r/c's), pte products appear to be improving, plus there is a myriad of other 1/18 items like star wars, IJ, x-men and on and on. But that's my opinion. What's yours?

Is 1/18 dead?

[pickelhaube]

Not if I can help it

[exether_mega]

Not if I can help it

count me in

phil

[Sabrefan]

Yes, I think it is. There is just about no new product out there, but we do have the fine work of people like Matthew to keep it around.

[tosborne3]

1:18 will always be around because of the diverse lines of figures that are made in that scale, ie Starwars, the new Trek line GI-Joe, etc... 21st isn't the only company making 1:18. We are merely going through a rough patch right now with the lack of new items. It's really up to the companys to make and release the products for us purchase. We can't buy whats not on the shelves. I think that 2009 will be a huge factor in the future of 1:18 lines, but if you really think about it the 1:18ish action figure has been out since the 70s and I don't think it will ever really die off.

[Grilledcheese]

I think BadCat should clearance all of its remaining 1/18 stock.

I mean, since its a dead line and all that...



Jeffrey

[hotrodrock]

You are correct sir. 1/18 will never completely go away. Too many figures in that scale. Armor may be a different story with all of the really fine 1/16 rc pieces that are out there and being made in the future. Just too much 1/16 and taking Tamiya out of the equation, at very good prices. Especially if the 21st KT does show up at around $100.

[[CAT]CplSlade]

I think BadCat should clearance all of its remaining 1/18 stock.

I mean, since its a dead line and all that...



Jeffrey

No, they'll just mark it all as rare/OOP, double their mark-up, and put it in their Reserve Stock.

[Jericoeagle1]

As long as I have a wallet its not dead.

[Threetoughtrucks]

I think 1/18 will die as a mass merchandising toy outfit, sold in Wallyworld and TRU. 21C started most of us with toy price tanks and planes. We roamed toy ailses fighting with little kids and their Moms for the latest 21C release. I think it will die as a stable for holiday buying for dopey little kids (my Grandson excepted). 1/18 will survive as relatively high priced ($100+) models of tanks and planes for collectors like us.

1/6 survives even after 21C told me directly, "1/6 is dead", currently with an army of kitbashing collectors for figures and vehicles and now moving into low priced model kits.

Maybe that's the future, kits and conversion kits....... PiclkeH's neat little conversion kit is a great start.....

TTT

[AMERICAN_GRENADIER]

At times it looks like its on its death bed! 21C reorder forms are almost empty. Nothing is available except the platoon figures and crap that didnt sell when it was new. Admirals in ability to bring anything out kills me. BBI seems to be scalling back with one or 2 releases a year. Its hard to say, i geuss we can only wait and hope. I belive the new year will see atleast one maybe 2 companys go out of business. Happy New Year!

[Jesse James]

I agree that it's not dead... It's slow, but not dead. FOV seems to want to stay with it, BBI's doing limited stuff, and 21st just put the 88 out and I'm still finding cases of .30 cal figures showing up at WM's sporadically so they're ordering and receiving.

Are aspects of 1:18 dead? I think you'll see less planes, and as far as I'm concerned that's a GOOD thing. Planes, choppers, and WM combined to put too much out when old stuff just wasn't selling.

I've said it before and I'll say it again... 21st (and I'm only focusing on them since they seem to be the ones that can't get a smooth formula going) needs to FOCUS on figures... Then focus on a $20-ish pricepoint. Beyond that though, anything $30 + they need to do in some limited capacity... One, maybe two larger pieces of armor or ground equipment a year. One, maybe two (and if two, one should be a popular repaint) of a plane a year... They should set smaller, more obtainable goals.

Figures though, should be what the line revolves around... This is how pretty much every other action figure line works, with vehicles secondary. If they could get more KT's and 88's out, then that should've been it for 2008 (well, 2009 now I guess) and just focus on getting THOSE two items out to retail in a good quantity (IE: not to e-tailers, which cannot carry any line financially).

The $20-ish pricepoint could have tons of junk in it too, not just a jeep or Kubel or something... Do smaller artillery, do "battlepack" concepts like Hasbro does for Star Wars... A window-displayed boxed set of some GI's capturing a downed German pilot? Or what about a couple repainted Marines and Japanese figures in a "battlepack" type setting?

21st needs to think outside the box (or inside the box?) with ideas like that, to sell that look like a value to the average joe consumer, and that are almost pure profit for the company to reinvest into new toolings (and so they can keep those new items "down" in price then as a result).

It's not a complex concept. It is something most toy companies do... Right now the only thing 21st does similar is repaint planes for the most part, and that just doesn't cut it... You can only sell so many of something so huge as airplanes. But you can sell figures till the cows come home.

Remember that Merril's Marauders pack? How many did you see? How many did you buy on sale or clearance?

I saw 1, and only saw it once. It never saw any price reduction, and you know what? It was almost pure profit to make that set. The packaging was probably more costly than the actual product was. Why did that work though? Because it was inexpensive, it packed a lot of coolness, and if 21st wanted to they could do all kinds of stuff like that, and it would fuel new mold toolings that, in the future, they could turn around re-use again...

Imagine the 88 in Panzer Grey with a crew in a window-box display, and maybe the crewmen have field caps on, maybe some unique division badges or something? You'd rake in cash with a set like that. The mold for the 88 exists, so the biggest cost iinvolved in toy production is taken care of... You'd sell a lot of those if they were priced right.

Imagine other sets too, like a U.S. mortar team maybe? Small investment in a mortar, crank a couple figures out with unique decorations, put it in a window box... Imagine the same with with 4 or 5 Paratroopers maybe (German or U.S.), perhaps carrying a wounded comrade on a "stretcher" accessory? Would you buy that? I'd buy 2 or 3 if it were $20 - $25.

But another plane sitting in a window box? I've got a ceiling full, and I don't even like planes that much guys... I'm to the point that unless it's damn special (B-17 or something), I wouldn't even give it a second look. Especially anything huge like the airplanes are, and at the higher pricepoints.

[immeww2]

I hope not, but the way things appear right now, we're on our last breath.

[AMERICAN_GRENADIER]

I would love to see some of the things your talking about. the problem with 21C is they dont have any real business plan! They jump from one thing to another never finishing what they have already started. The Wittmann tiger to mention just one. They are poorly run and dont really take into consideration what the buyers want. Every year i go To IHOBBY in Chicago and have lunch with them. They ask what would you like to see? I tell them and they look at me like im crazy. I love thier stuff even the planes! but I find it only getting harder to deal with them.

[USCGSARdog]

Is 1/18 dead?

He he he........ NOT!

-Rob

[flyboy_fx]

WELL I dont think it will die.....well........errrr.....not yet at least

[tmanthegreat]

Much room for debate on this topic... I think 1:18 military toys are either dying a slow death or simply transforming into a specialty product. They have certainly lost their popularity (if they ever were truly popular) and there are few prospective new releases. Alot of the newest items that have come out tend to be more specialty collector items - take the BBI Zero repaints and the 21c 88mm gun for recent examples. As specialty items, fewer are made and they are priced higher. That might be the way the 1:18 industry survives and there are plenty of examples with other toys/models that show this to be a good way to go. For example, one does not see the high-priced Lehman Gross Bahn (LGB) G-scale trains sold at Wal Mart or TRU.

As has already been pointed out, 1:18 will survive in other forms, particularly with Hasbro's GI Joe and Star Wars lines - both of which were light years ahead in popularity among consumers than 21c's Xtreme Detail line ever was.

Also, look at who mostly collects 1:18 and smaller scale military models. It is largely a narrow fringe group of collectors that know something about the history and significance of the models they collect. Sure, there are many people that come across the 21c items, think they are cool, and get them, but the vast majority of the buyers were people like those of us on this board. Why else could Wal Mart never sell droves of 1:18 scale Avengers?

So, in short, 1:18 scale military models may be dying a slow death and will certainly become a specialty item in the short run, but 1:18 as a scale to make figures and vehicles apart from military replicas in is not dead.

[ARMY GROUP 1]

Not quite dead, but no cash flow means its fading away, hoping they might try and recoup their expenses of bringing the KT so far, by releasing it, but after that and given the state of the world, you would think it would be finished. Never give up hope though, nothing surprises me these days.

[Grilledcheese]

An applicable quote from The Princess Bride:

"See, there's a big difference between mostly dead, and all dead. Now, mostly dead: he's slightly alive. All dead: well, with all dead, there's usually only one thing that you can do----go through his clothes and look for loose change."



Jeffrey
(Inconceivable!)

[VMF115]

An applicable quote from The Princess Bride:

"See, there's a big difference between mostly dead, and all dead. Now, mostly dead: he's slightly alive. All dead: well, with all dead, there's usually only one thing that you can do----go through his clothes and look for loose change."



Jeffrey
(Inconceivable!)

The only thing that can save this hobby is True love.


I love that moive.

[olifant]

As everyone else stated 1/18 will live on if only for the figures. JJ, you have great points on how 21C could make this work.

Remember that even now you can walk into WM, Target and TRU and buy 1/18 military toys. Go online and the etailers have a pretty good selection. The years of release after release my be gone, but in 2008 we have a new ME-109, a Hellcat repaint, an 88MM gun and a small handful of new figures from the big three. Add the garage detailers and customizers and things look pretty darn far away from dead.

[GooglyDoogly]

Imagine the 88 in Panzer Grey with a crew in a window-box display, and maybe the crewmen have field caps on, maybe some unique division badges or something? You'd rake in cash with a set like that. The mold for the 88 exists, so the biggest cost iinvolved in toy production is taken care of... You'd sell a lot of those if they were priced right.

What's gonna happen is we the "true" consumers of these products would say.

"Oooh, 88mm with a full crew! Awesome! But eh...I'll wait until it's on clearance."

21st was badly run, but all those XD products languishing on the shelves because we're waiting to pounce on them like vultures once they go on clearance had something to do with 21st's downfall in wal-mart.

Let's not put all the blame on the manufacturers. We the consumers share the blame as well for killing this hobby. (if it IS dead)

[Dauntless]

I think 1:18 has a future, but as has been said, it will take other forms. Other toy companies including Mattel are going to this scale with some of their Batman and DC figures. Some Marvel Hulk figures by Hasbro were recently done in 1:18 (or 3.75) with a Hummer.

It's really becoming a sort of universal scale for vehicles with figures. Though most are really not in scale, we get some crossover military toys occasionally. Though most are cheesy.

We'll have to see how the new GI movie inspires some vehicles. Possibly the new "Resolute" cartoon, we might get some sort of closer to reality vehicles. Though I have a feeling they will have a Hummer for sure.

Too bad we didn't get some Valkyrie figures and vehicles.

[Jesse James]

What's gonna happen is we the "true" consumers of these products would say.

"Oooh, 88mm with a full crew! Awesome! But eh...I'll wait until it's on clearance."

21st was badly run, but all those XD products languishing on the shelves because we're waiting to pounce on them like vultures once they go on clearance had something to do with 21st's downfall in wal-mart.

Let's not put all the blame on the manufacturers. We the consumers share the blame as well for killing this hobby. (if it IS dead)

I disagree, sort of...

I don't think most people treated things that way. At least I didn't... I bought things when I wanted them bad enough. I got clearance deals too, but usually they were flukes. Of course though, if something were too pricey to me, I also wouldn't buy it. Case-in-point, I wouldn't buy an Abrams tank till Target got them for cheapy cheap... Full price though, at TRU I believe it was, sucked to me and I wouldn't buy (partially because modern doesn't interest me like WW2, partially because I didn't see the value in the BBI Abrams price that i saw in the Tiger-I from 21st).

Do people who wait for clearance share some blame? Eh, partially... But that's the reality of the hobby though too. If you really wanted it, you'd pay full price, and if it were truly a viable hobby it would sell at full price. Case-in-point again, look at the Merril's Marauders set at TRU I mentioned... How many did you see, and how many on sale did you see? I barely saw any at all, and I saw NONE for less than full price in the brief window they were available. Maybe I'm in the minority on that but I doubt it.

So do the clearance waiters really have that much of an impact on the hobby? And if so, that just proves that the item they want isn't worth the price being asked, otherwise they'd have bought it. Look at the Hasbro AT-TE... At $100, it sold very well at first. After about a month or two it slowed down, but still on its debut it sold a lot from what I hear... And it's sold steadily well through the holidays. It has obviously a large demand that keeps it viable on the shelves.

Is that same desire there for next plane or tank? I think it can be, but it depends on price of course. Does the 88 stand a chance on retailer shelves at the inflated price? I don't believe it does... At $40, I think it's definitely more attractive though, especially in a nice "wndow display" box with figures for a crew for it.

Obviously some people wait on clearance, and by doing that you're saying "this isn't worth $_____ to me". I think most people on here don't wait though... At the same time I did wait on items like the playsets (save for the larger one), due to the price not meeting my perception of value. I got some planes on clearance too because on clearance I thought they were worth it, but full price just didn't interest me. It's how I got my Avenger.

I don't think though, that there's enough people doing that to ruin the line... 21st maybe want to take things to a more specialty market with higher prices, and if that's the road they're going to go they'll lose a large consumer market I'm afraid. They couldn't handle mass retail, so I think going "niche" would be even worse for them, but what do I know? I think they should be trying to form a real formula for the line though, as other toy line's have, that doesn't focus so much on expensive pieces being the anchors. I don't know of any other major toy brand that does that. How can you expect to survive with that as your business model? You can't.

[tosborne3]

I believe that as long as people like us are collecting, the 1:18 scale lines will never die. 1:18, in it's many forms, is gotta be the most successful of all action figure lines. Just look at how long GI-Joe has been around and not to mention others, If you really think about it, look at how long we have been getting or beloved XD. Even if 21st goes bye bye we'll still have collecting and customizing. I believe that sometimes the reins need to be handed over. I love 21st, but this Christmas season will let us all know where the company stands. It's too bad that BBI and FOV don't seize this oppertunity and come out with both guns blazing. I think that they are worried that 21st will pull a rope-a-dope on them after the new year. I pray that we have not heard the last from 21st, they are the best.