Prices Way Down On E-bay

[pickelhaube]

I just did a price sweep on e-bay and the selling prices seem to be way down.

The high bid is on an Bunker Hill Corsair NIB @ $78

There is a bunch of Hueys around $100 not selling.

Of course tons and tons of stuff $250-$150 that will never sell at those prices.

All of the bid prices are reasonable so far .

Of course prices will change last selling minet.

Economy or lack of interest in our beloved XD ?

[Threetoughtrucks]

For what it's worth, I believe it is the economy and especially the uncertain costs we will pay for health care next year. That can be a few bucks or very serious increases.

For me, it will mean only a $5 increase in co-pays, and a few small other changes, no premium increases, so my toy budget does not change.

I'd be on the eBay like white on rice IF I had the room. My son wants to buy me another house for my toys and quest rooms for visitors, I'm just waiting for a house near me to go up for sale. Soooooo, do I buy another house or a new car.... decisions, decisions, decisions.

TT and out of room T

[Light.Inf.Scout]

both I imagine...

[Beeavision]

Still looking out for a 1:18 AH-1 Super Cobra below $150 new in box. So far no luck as of yet and probably never will as prices on these are always going up. : (

[EnemyAce]

1:18 is not hot with releases. That sometimes leads to a slow down in interest in collecting that scale. Space is a big one as well. Hard to display more than a couple of these without them taking up the whole room. A lot were bought by collectors (not openers) as well, which means that there is a steady supply of 'new in box' models out there, so less pressure to score ones that hit the market.

[tmanthegreat]

I've discussed this trend with some forum members outside of the board... There are likely a variety of reasons. First, a lot of the new/repaint items seem to be moving rather slowly. Yes, the Dauntless sold quickly at the outset, but there seem to be many sitting around. One can still find most of the new BBI releases at retail as well. The fact that most of those items were repaints and that they cost nearly 2x as much as the originals is very likely the cause for the slow sales on the new items...

The slow sales on the older items seems more curious. The uncertainty with the economy, Obamacare, politics, etc. are likely factors for the slowdown in sales. I have noticed that many of the decently-priced ebay items are also some of the more common and somewhat less-desired items. Notice that the more rare items tend to still command higher prices. Then there are all the items simply set for BIN and $150+ and unless someone is desperate, collectors aren't likely to pay those prices.

Also it could be possible that enough of the truly interested collectors have these items, so there is an increasing lack of interest. Lack of interest or recognition was always a problem, even during the Golden Age. 1:18 scale items have always sold poorly. Further, there is not much advertisement of these items and a new collector would have to likely encounter these items in person to find out about them (assuming they are not on an online forum or something) and since they are no longer at every store shelf...

[Jesse James]

This is pretty much the only place where XD's a big deal... and it's not exactly hopping. There's no support for 1:18 for the most part. It's a dead hobby... Can't blame the economy for there being declining interest in what is essentially a dead hobby. It was always kind of on the smaller side... It wasn't Star Wars circa 1978 and all. It wasn't a toy line that defined the childhood of countless kids like GI Joe or Star Wars or whatnot.

I figure it's just typical... I've noticed a bit of a spike in listings too compared to a time when little XD got out there. I think the prices got people to post, but it's dwindling and people's interest is too. I buy little 1:18 anymore at all. I dig the custom kit pieces PH and Grunt do, but beyond that this hobby's DOA now. I think some support from a company putting out things like 21st Cent. did would drive older items back up again, but without that this was inevitable to me.

[skypirate]

Haven't priced any vehicles lately, but I was a single bidder on a couple of pilot figures recently at prices that almost made me feel guilty.
But, no, I'm not going to part with them anytime soon to ease my conscious.

The same thing seems to be going on with some of the NHRA diecast cars 1/16, 1/18, 1/24 scale. 90% of these are out of production, many for years. During the spring, I was watching the prices skyrocket. They seem to have normalized in the past month or so.

LEGO prices still surprise me. 4438 Robber's Hideout, a 2012 set, has doubled in price. Someday, I've really got to consider investing in the right sets for resale.

[Jesse James]

Lego is steadily the only sound investment you can make in the toy world... It's insane.

Star Wars Vintage toys continue to rise... Things I bought in the late 80's, 90's, are turning out to actually have been huge investments. My DT Luke? Kinda insane what I can get now compared to what I paid.

Some later modern Star Wars is increasing as well, which is kinda funny considering that the modern SW line in general is usually NOT a wise place to go. Post 2003 toys though seem to have a little better turn-around if that's of interest to some. It's hit and miss though for sure, not all by any means. Still though, Vintage Collection, lots of 2007 stuff, POTC/OTC, Saga 2006, Build-A-Droid... Lots of stuff holding or increasing in value.

Again I don't think it's the economy as much as it's lack of interest and lack of longevity and/or a future for it. 1:18's dead. 1:16 has some life, but limited. I love my stuff, but I've said it before elsewhere that if 1:16 had replacements for all the 1:18 I have (nothing amazing, or complex... Nothing better than 21st's stuff) at normal prices, I'd probably ditch all my 1:18 save for figures. I am into 1:16 but not the higher-end 1:16 like Tamiya stuff... I like the mid to low-range stuff that makes amassing a cool collection easy, affordable (for the most part), and inclusive.

And my 1:18 dudes (and buildings) look awesome around it.

[Dauntless]

Good to know the SW stuff is holding value, still got much to unload this season hopefully get good prices, so's I can buy more airplanes.

Last I checked, it was the D-Day Spitfire that seemed to have the highest ending price, on aircraft anyways.

Like said, uncertainty is a big factor.

[Jesse James]

SOME Star Wars is... not all, by a longshot, but some of it is at least fetching full retail if not a little more. It's mostly the better stuff, obviously, from recent years.

[aferguson]

i think it's mostly due to the economy, in two ways.

First, people have less money to spend on a luxury like $150 for a 1/18 tank, plane etc, so there are fewer buyers

Second, after nearly 5 years of this recession (i know it's officially been over for a long time but the effects of it are still very much here to those of us 'in the trenches') a lot more people are broke or nearly broke and selling off their belongings to scare up some money....1/18 included. This is on top of the people who are losing interest in the hobby, with it being so slow and selling their 1/18 stuff as well.

So there is an increase in people selling 1/18 and a decreased pool of buyers, so prices naturally drop. I don't see the economy picking up any time soon, in fact i can see it getting a whole lot worse, i'm afraid to say, so i doubt this trend will reverse itself anytime soon.

[mikeg]

Yeah, no shiznip- does anyone seriously ever regularly look at 21st on ebay anymore??
I did a couple of nights ago; 150.00 and up for a boxed piston AC, 170.00 for a freaking loose donnie boy P-47, - what the hell?? I occasionally like to buy a loose repaint I ignored in the past, but never off ebay. This forum is the only place I purchase from,- Do any of you pay those kind of prices? and then for something you won't even open? why?

Loose and Displayed AC Forever : ...and affordable.

[Dauntless]

I occasionally check completed auctions to see what my stuff is worth, and yes prices have gone down on most everything.

The 1:6 vehicles have slipped a little, but are still the highest priced. Sold all mine a couple of seasons ago.

The 1:18 Spitfires seem to be the highest still. Saw an NKK above $200 with bids to go.

32X Corsair Jolly Roger went for $100.

All in all everything is still way above what I paid for it, but I got in on the ground floor collecting wise.

There seems to be a lot of buy it now stuff for ridiculous prices, and number of them not sold reflects the number of people not buying them (just where are they getting all these, barn find, warehouses in China, hoarding? ) There are more buy it nows than items to bid on it seems.
One seller has multiples of P-40 Flying Tigers for $150 and didn't sell any of them it looks like.

[Coreyeagle48]

Greetings:

I think what everyone has said so far on this subject has been true. I also think though a few other things might be affecting the hobby as well.

I think people now realize as a whole what these items were about with quality control and so on. I think many people might be afraid to pay big dollars for a plane with bad paint touchups or broken pieces. You're luck with the BBI pieces is better, but the 21c pieces were notorious for this. It's a big chance to take when you can get something in a better quality in a smaller scale.

Going along with what was said above, people may be worried that these remaining boxed 21c planes are the "pigs" so to speak. With the production of these items ceased for years, one has to imagine most of the good examples are in collections and people are hanging onto them. Most of the remaining NIB stuff may be stuff people picked out of the clearance bins at Walmart, so who knows on the quality of it. I know about a year ago I got a MIB Spitfire off Ebay and it was a disaster in terms of the paint. I wasn't pleased at all. So with the items higher priced, its a big risk, and on Ebay even with buyer protection, there would be little recourse if you got a bad piece NIB.

I think people have also wised up on Ebay and realize that some of the sellers are asking way too much for these pieces. So people aren't buying. The economy hurts too, but I think the people buying now have gotten wiser. Hence you see the rare items still commanding big money while the common items or items with the bizarre schemes or poor molds going for very little.

These are big items, and one has to wonder if people simply ran out of room. For example, I have the room to display about 5 of these models and that's really it. I think the size is a factor and people's space is a factor. Plus they haven't been made to sell at mass retail in years...as people have said...the interest is wearing off I believe.

[Jesse James]

The collectible world isn't seeing the same slowdown overall though... Vintage Star Wars toys are actually steeply rising if they're quality pieces. AFA grading has become a way of the world there too, something I consider a bit of a plague.

The modern SW market is even not as bad as it once was... Secondary stuff, a lot of the more recent lines are holding steady or rising in price.

GI Joe is also going up... Vintage and modern alike, there's a good deal of secondary market buying there.

I think the majority of it has to do with it having support, or some kind of future to it.

[Coreyeagle48]

Jesse:

You make an interesting point there about the "support" of the hobby. It has clearly eroded in the last two years or so, evident by the Ebay pricing of the items and the collector base here. A lot of folks have simply disappeared, and many have gotten out of the hobby. I know of five that I communicate with who packed it in over the last three or four years.

The sad part is these items had much potential but they just could never develop it into the following needed to be successful. Poor quality control, Walmart distribution issues, repaints, all contributed to the fiasco that were these items. While BBI seemed to be more stable, they never really released enough to keep interest, their items, while good, came more here and there. These items had a cool factor but just never seemed to hit it off mainstream, which was needed to keep it alive. More importantly they fell in between two collecting areas...toys and collectible pieces, but really were neither one. They were too fragile to be officially toys and lacked the accurate details to be collectibles to the military market.

I think the World War II craze may be finally fading as well. World War II has been a hot interest for years. I think these items did fairly well when that craze was hot with the World War II movies and so forth. The last few years that's faded and so has the interest. I remember when the movie Titanic came out the craze that followed. Prices on everything Titanic went through the roof for about two years. Then it dropped off only to pick up again for the 100th anniversary last year. Now its dropped again. I know someone who bought a whole lot of Titanic stuff when it was "hot" after the movie had come out. Now, they better enjoy it, because the stuff they have has just died in terms of the prices.

As has been stated by some, I think the 1/18 military toy days are over in terms of peak interest. We may get sporadic releases and some special custom projects by dedicated folks, but I think the idea of a company releasing these in mainstream retail anymore is over.

Corey

[Threetoughtrucks]

Ditto on Corey.

I believe the 1/18 WW2 toy market has seen it's peak. The 1/18 collector market should survive. Price will go up as the collector market produces limited production runs.

As well as more than a few members of this board, my 1/6 collection has risen sharply in the last year. Prices are high and resales are good. Not cheap, but good.

There are naysayers constantly complaining about manufactures leaving 1/6 and "1/6 is dead" and while a thread about DML 1/6 is dead is still active and BLAM, DML releases a preorder on a new Sherman tank (76mm gun) and the figure market is still active. The new tank knocks our socks off.

For myself, I have bought 4 1/6 pieces in the six weeks but only 1 new 1/18 piece in the same period of time.

Say what you will but I feel talk about either 1/18 or 1/6's death is premature.

TTT