Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

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Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by dragon53 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 8:40 am

From Badcat:

If I Were a Manufacturer . . .

The depth of knowledge required to be a production manager is something I find more than just a bit daunting. There are a plethora of variables to consider along with some really hairy mathematics. My one production course while working on my MBA only scratched the surface of this field and I would need considerably more education and experience before ever entering this arena. I’m just a marketing guy and retail is my bag, but here’s what my list might look like if I were to become manufacturer (don’t worry, I’m not). And by manufacturer, I mean I’d make 1:32 and 1:18 scale airplanes by hiring a Chinese factory to do the muscle work after providing them with a sample. Note my list takes into account scarce financial resources, as well as, potential popularity and sales. All of the planes below would be new toolings which are expensive to develop. There would be absolutely no wiggle room to take a gamble on a potential dud. So here are my sure-fire winners and why:

1. 1:32 Hellcat—Second biggest seller in 1:18 only behind the Corsair. Sells well in 1:72 and 1:48, too. Tooling and production costs reasonable. Would probably produce with non-folding wings. Low risk and high return potential. Not very flashy but my first choice as best chance to double-up.

2. 1:38 P-38—Another no-brainer. The 1:18 version of this bird has always had mild pop but strong legs making it an excellent seller over the long haul. Lots of great schemes means that this tooling could be used over and over again.

3. 1:18 Me-163—Still at the top of my 1:18 list due to both its 1:72 popularity and small size. The plastic MRC line we used to carry was rather unremarkable in performance save for the Me-163. These bats sold out almost as soon as they got here, time and time again. There’s also a remarkable number of schemes for S2 and S3. A small, very simple airplane to produce means reasonable production costs and an eventual retail price of about $100 or a little less which collectors will appreciate, too.

4. 1:18 Dauntless—Lots of interested folks signed-up for this piece before Admiral exited the playing field. The Dauntless is steeped in American history and turned the tide of the Pacific War. Only a little bigger than a P-51 the 1:18 Dauntless would have moderate tooling and production costs and I’ll go out on a limb and guestimate about $200K to generate the first 5000 units (a reasonable MOQ in today’s China). Lots of upside and I don’t think it would be too difficult to sell all of these.

5. 1:32 F/A-18E—The best selling modern fighter in just about any other scale. The Hornet would move here, as well. Another low risk, high return venture.

6. 1:18 F4F Wildcat—With USA WWII Navy fighters leading the way in 1:18 sales, it only makes sense that the Wildcat would be popular here. I’m a little concerned that the 1:32 version sold well but not great, as compared to its SBD cousin.

7. 1:18 Albatros—WWI, the undiscovered country, no one has ventured here yet but 1:18 birds from this era would be small and relatively economical to produce. The Albatros was flown by nearly every famous German pilot from Von R to Goering. The number of cool and outrageous paint schemes boggles the mind. Corgi’s 1:48 line are the leaders in high-end diecast, too. A good risk.

8. 1:18 P-39—Make a fighter with a nose gear, roll up car-like windows, and mid-engine and you have for yourself a plane that captures the imagination of many collectors. Big seller in 1:72 and 1:32, too. Great schemes means excellent amortization of the tooling investment.

9. 1:32 B-25 Mitchell—A little too big and costly for my mythical budget in 1:18, the 1:32 scale Mitchell would be affordable and could be modified for numerous variations, like Doolittle’s Raiders or the awesome late-war gunships.

10. 1:32 F-16 Falcon—Might not be the greatest example of production creativity but the aircraft is a solid performer in all other scales and lends itself to a wide variety of paint schemes.



Honorable Mention

1. 1:18 A-10 Thunderbolt II—I’m sorry, this project just doesn’t pencil for me. Looking at possibly $750K or more to yield 5000 units. A retail price upwards of $500 would not be received warmly. Might sell 1000 units in a good economy leaving the remaining 80% of the inventory sitting in the warehouse. A financial disaster waiting to happen, in my opinion. However, again, I’m not a production expert and maybe a REAL manufacturer will take this one on in real life. The A-10 has a host of loyal and vocal fans, I just don’t think there’s enough of them out there to buy what would be a very expensive toy.

2. 1:18 F-4 Phantom—Has even more upside than the A-10 in terms of popularity but high tooling and production costs make it a big gamble for a little guy.

3. 1:32 P-61 or Tigercat—Not produced often in other scales but big sellers where available, might be a good next choice after the B-25.

4. 1:32 B-17—Still at large airplane in this medium scale, the B-17 is a big part of USA history and would probably be successful if the tooling was utilized over several production runs.

5. 1:18 Hawker Typhoon—Big cowl and lots of rockets. Might be a winner.

6. 1:32 B-26—Yeah, why not.

7. 1:32 F-105—Probably worth a shot when the list gets short.

8. 1:32 A-10—A much better choice than its big brother.

9. 1:18 SB2C Helldiver—An extremely good seller in 1:72, don’t dismiss too quickly at this or 1:32 scale.

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by Birddog » Wed Aug 31, 2011 9:00 am

Of course that's BS on the A-10 and F-4. There's no way an A-10 or an F-4 couldn't be produced for a retail price that is at or below the $300 retail price of a 1/18 scale F-14. The A-10 especially since it is way simpler to recreate in design features compared to an F-14...... :roll:
Go Ugly Early in 1/18!!

Still waiting and wishing for a 1/18 A-10 Warthog.

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by gburch » Wed Aug 31, 2011 9:17 am

Birddog wrote:Of course that's BS on the A-10 and F-4. There's no way an A-10 or an F-4 couldn't be produced for a retail price that is at or below the $300 retail price of a 1/18 scale F-14. The A-10 especially since it is way simpler to recreate in design features compared to an F-14...... :roll:
I'm not sure what you're saying follows from what was posted at Badcat. To me, it looks like he pulled a production cost number out of his a$$, and then figured what you'd have to charge for it -- TO MAKE A PROFIT. You may be assuming JSI's made a profit on sales of the F-14 up to now ... which might not be a correct assumption.

Anyway ... reading something like this is like looking at porn: It's ABOUT something I'm interested in, but it's not the real thing ...

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by Airacobra » Wed Aug 31, 2011 9:27 am

I would be all over a 1/18 scale P-39. I would buy multiples for repaints as well. I would also love a 1/18 Helldiver. I have always liked that plane.
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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by B17Fortress » Wed Aug 31, 2011 9:50 am

What, no love for the Soviet Crocodile? (That's the Mi-24 D Hind for those of you who didn't know)
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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by MUDHEN336 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:08 am

An F-4 would be a no brainer. Over 5000 were produced in multiple variants. It served with all three air branches in the US and both Demonstration Teams. It was in service with numerous foreign air forces. Some are still flying the Rhino today! Think of all the different options they could make from the same tooling. From a business standpoint you would get a lot more bang for the buck than the A-10 would bring. Of course I would be the first one in line for a Warthog!!
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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by Jnewboy » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:14 am

I would definitely love a 1/18 hind, I would love WWI airplanes in 1/18 but I would want at least 5 - 6 made, which would boost sales of each and collectively as collectors would be more inclined to take on a collection in that scale if more than one plane was built. They would do very well if they could be at or beat wing nut's prices of their kits which are 1/32

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by sdcc73 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:17 am

Airacobra wrote: I would also love a 1/18 Helldiver. I have always liked that plane.
dragon53 wrote:From Badcat --- 1:18 Helldiver ---An extremely good seller in 1:72, don’t dismiss too quickly at this.
Helldiver - I'd thought I'd never see this in 1:18 due to the Dauntless long slated (now stalled) release. Yet hearing how the Helldiver stands as an "extremely good seller in 1:72" it got me thinking, yeah, there are many out there who'd like this plane. I thought having a Wildcat or Dauntless would be great. But having a Helldiver would be a greater addition to a collection. It maybe a risk because its a tad bigger, yet that maybe the draw and cause for bigger sales. Badcat raised good points, "don't dismiss too quickly at this" its "extremely good seller."
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Last edited by sdcc73 on Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:44 am, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by Birddog » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:27 am

gburch wrote:
Birddog wrote:Of course that's BS on the A-10 and F-4. There's no way an A-10 or an F-4 couldn't be produced for a retail price that is at or below the $300 retail price of a 1/18 scale F-14. The A-10 especially since it is way simpler to recreate in design features compared to an F-14...... :roll:
I'm not sure what you're saying follows from what was posted at Badcat. To me, it looks like he pulled a production cost number out of his a$$, and then figured what you'd have to charge for it -- TO MAKE A PROFIT. You may be assuming JSI's made a profit on sales of the F-14 up to now ... which might not be a correct assumption.

Anyway ... reading something like this is like looking at porn: It's ABOUT something I'm interested in, but it's not the real thing ...
I understand what you are saying, but I think it would be safe to say that JSI as a manufacturer was set up to make some type of profit with the first production run of their F-14. Why a manufacturer would not ensure that their selling price per unit to the first link in the chain of sales does not include a profit would be a bad business practice in my opinion.

Of course there are other factors to consider like the complexity of producing the subject matter. Some subjects are harder to produce due to their design than others which may involve more pieces having to be manufactured and more production lines being created to make those pieces, etc. However, the costs of these things would/should be accounted for when setting the sales price. This is where my comment about the cost of producing an A-10 vs. an F-14 comes from: I just purchased the Flying Styro A-10 and in looking at the breakdown of the aircraft into parts to fit into a box that is nowhere near the size of the F-14's box, it's pretty clear to me that an A-10 should not cost more to produce. If you used the F-14's box for an A-10, some of the individual pieces could be combined together reducing the number of pieces per plane to be produced. Plus, the simplicity of the working features on an A-10 compared to the F-14, such as the landing gear, should be a cost savings in itself. Some of my reasoning also comes from talking with one of the now defunct manufacturers. The concern for not taking it on at that time was all the one-up-manship that seemed to be going on at the time and there truly is no way two or more manufacturers could share the market when it comes to 1/18 scale jets like the F-16, A-10, F-18, etc. size.

Plus I've seen and held the only publicly shown 1/18 scale prototype of an F-4 Phantom and I see the same arguement for it..... :D
Go Ugly Early in 1/18!!

Still waiting and wishing for a 1/18 A-10 Warthog.

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by Birddog » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:32 am

You can get the idea of what I'm talking about from the photos I took of the Flying Styro A-10 (which is being touted as 1/17 scale by the manufacturer, but is realy in between 1/17 and 1/18 scale when you mesure it) sitting beside bbi's 1/18 scale F-18.

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Go Ugly Early in 1/18!!

Still waiting and wishing for a 1/18 A-10 Warthog.

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by Dauntless » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:33 pm

Some good choices in 1:32 like the Hellcat, P-38 (no brainers agreed) The B-25, B-17, and a host of other multi-engine bombers, are in the pipe in 1:32 model kits, so 1:32 is getting more popular there. Like to see them pre-made plastic though.

I think you have to be very selective in the 1:18 aircraft, as a dud could cost a lot of money, plus the amount of milage you can get out of one type of aircraft is limited like the Wildcat (maybe a few more than usual repaints) and Typhoon (what a desert version and a Euro grey-green version with or without D-day stripes, that's is it, no?... a three aircraft run) Not saying I wouldn't want one of each though, but there's other aircraft more popular imo.

He completely missed the 1:18 P-51 B/C which has a multitude of olive drab and aluminum schemes, as well as nudie nose art. It hasn't been done yet and I have a feeling people would buy multiples of it just like they did with the P-51D.
No mention of later model P-40 Warhawks (E thru N) in either 1:18 or 1:32 Another plane with a multitude of schemes and cool nose art that hasn't been made, and another chance to release a Flying Tiger, which did well in the Tomahawk version.

The P-51B/C (used by many aces before they got their shiny new rides the P-51D's) and the P-40E/F btw both used by the Tuskeegee airmen. I mean he's taking courses for marketing and production management, he should look into the not too distant future where there will be a possible clamoring for these (not to mention a possible Flying Tigers movie also in the works) It helps to have a movie help sell your aircraft too, then capitalize with followups you won't soon run out of popular options for repaints, and keep milking it till we drown in schemes...someone will buy them.
Would they tell you these things in marketing 101?....probably. Even Hot Wheels, and other toy makers like 21stC know or knew this strategy, and even though it didn't save them (21stC) it's sound business practice (milk the repaints) no?

I would buy a 1:18 or 1:32 (in plastic) Aircobra , or a 1:18 Dauntless fer sure (another aircraft with many schemes even though most are blue, though you could take the tail hook off and run an Olive drab A-24 Banshee too.
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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by rschaap » Wed Aug 31, 2011 3:04 pm

I agree with the earlier post on the F-4 Phantom. I believe this would be a huge seller if made, especially given it's history. It was the only U.S. jet fighter to become an ace during Vietnam. The Navy and Air Force had an ace in the Phantom. I would love to hang a couple of them in my room with the other jets. I could see my Phantom chasing a mig. I realize it may only be a dream, but I'll hold onto it. My two cents.......

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by aferguson » Wed Aug 31, 2011 4:01 pm

i think a He-162 would do well, like a Komet. A variety of interesting schemes, german late war appeal. Smallish simple plane, therefore less risk and expense.

A new spitfire would be a good choice. Mk IX or later. Lots of schemes to choose from.

A Fw-190A, long overdue and a zillion variants and schemes. It's what 21c should have made to begin with.

Call me crazy but a Macchi 202. I wonder how well the 32x version sold?...they seem to sell for decent money on ebay. Lots of very attractive schemes and killer looks.

I still say a Harrier. Relatively small for a jet, everyone thinks harriers are neat. Would appeal to both groundpounder guys and aircraft guys.
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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by normandy » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:30 pm

What no Tanks?............ :evil: .................. :P
I'd go for a Komet and always thought we'd see one from Pegasus or hoped we would. :roll:
Does Rob's list have anything to do with potential future releases from AllGo?

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by VMF115 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 6:04 pm

What no love for the F-8 crusader, A-6, A-7, A-1, and the F-100, all of those I bet would sell very well.
And what about the Mig-29?
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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by plasticboy » Wed Aug 31, 2011 6:51 pm

I really love to see 1/18 F4F, P-39, SBD, SB2C appear in this era, I definitely get them without the doubt.

1:18 Albatros good too but can't just come alone, love to see more biplane.
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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by gburch » Thu Sep 01, 2011 3:24 am

VMF115 wrote:What no love for the F-8 crusader, A-6, A-7, A-1, and the F-100, all of those I bet would sell very well.
And what about the Mig-29?
Don't give up hope on an A-7. I've spent a few hours thinking about how I might tackle the A-7 as my next project after I "finish" the V-2. It would be a significantly more complex problem than the V-2 but, with what I've learned with the rocket project, I might just begin actual work on an A-7 in a couple of months.

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by snake » Thu Sep 01, 2011 3:31 am

Interesting choices for sure.

But if I was putting my money where my mouth was, only one choice in new 1/18 tooling.

F-4 Phantom.

So many choices of schemes. Served in the USAF, USN, and Marines. As well as a multitude of other nations, including Britain, and Israel.

The F-4 is a HUGE seller in 1/72, and is the bread and butter model for Hobby Master.

Do this right, and you will sell a ton of these.

Simpler, and smaller than the F-14, so would be priced cheaper. Cheaper price, means more people would be willing to buy, and the schemes are vast.

Jolly Rogers would be a no brainer as a first release. Black Aces, Tomcatters, etc, etc, etc.

USAF versions are significant as well. SEA camo should be done as the second release.

All grey ANG anyone?

Maybe less popular in 1/18 than the US versions, but you could do a British Phantom. And the Israeli camo looks fantastic.

If you are going to do an entirely new tooling in 1/18, F-4 Phantom has it all, and would do extremely well. The smartest choice by far. :wink:

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by Beeavision » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:02 am

Yeah tell me about it no sooner BBI released an F-4 in 1:32 with the Jolly Rogers scheme I just had to buy it despite its smaller size in comparison to the rest of my collection. Now its just a matter of almost doubling its size and were home free. :D

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by Beeavision » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:15 am

I wonder if 21st Century or Admiral ever got around to tooling this aircraft prior to putting the brakes on this project.

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by vmf214 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 7:00 am

I would say Rob has a little more incite as to costs than most on forums give him credit for. Lest we forget BCA is about the only ones to have exclusives commissioned so of course they know what it takes to get something made. Naturally he's thinking from a profit perspective, he is after all a retailer. Whether someone personally likes the guy or not we wouldn't have all the big jet exclusives we love so much if it weren't for the guy.

Also about the only way to gauge sales in 1/18 is by sales figures for smaller versions. Be kinda stupid to dump all that money on a potential dud.

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by tmanthegreat » Thu Sep 01, 2011 9:26 am

vmf214 wrote:I would say Rob has a little more incite as to costs than most on forums give him credit for. Lest we forget BCA is about the only ones to have exclusives commissioned so of course they know what it takes to get something made. Naturally he's thinking from a profit perspective, he is after all a retailer. Whether someone personally likes the guy or not we wouldn't have all the big jet exclusives we love so much if it weren't for the guy.

Also about the only way to gauge sales in 1/18 is by sales figures for smaller versions. Be kinda stupid to dump all that money on a potential dud.

Just my two cents.

I'll have to agree with you there :wink:

My only disagreements with BCA Rob's list would be that I would rather see a Sopwith Camel, a Fokker Dr I or a Fokker DVII than an Albatros in terms of 1:18 WWI aircraft (though an Albatros does look cool) and I'm not sure how a Helldiver would sell in 1:18 - probably why its last on the list.

My biggest issue is that I would take an FW-190A over a P-39 any day. That this aircraft has not been produced to date is a shame. To me the FW-190A is a much more badly needed fighter in 1:18 than the P-39. It was the 2nd most widely used Luftwaffe aircraft, has tons of repaint and conversion possibilities and is one of the war's classic fighters.

As I'm not a retailer, I can't say what the sales potential would be, however, it seems that a variety of manufacturers are constantly cranking out new paintschemes and toolings of the FW-190A in the smaller scales, so it must sell well. But again, I could see the hesitancy of making a 1:18 version given the poor track record of 21c's FW-190D-9 (a great tooling and a favorite of mine, but a questionable choice for collector recognizability and sales potential).
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Bad Cat & the Tom Cat

Post by c44 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 10:08 am

...although it was BC Rob who famously dismissed rumors of a 1/18 F-14, saying it would never happen...but, hey, we all put a foot in our mouth now and than, don't we...? :wink:
Last edited by c44 on Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by Jnewboy » Thu Sep 01, 2011 10:38 am

aferguson wrote:i think a He-162 would do well, like a Komet. A variety of interesting schemes, german late war appeal. Smallish simple plane, therefore less risk and expense.

A new spitfire would be a good choice. Mk IX or later. Lots of schemes to choose from.

A Fw-190A, long overdue and a zillion variants and schemes. It's what 21c should have made to begin with.

Call me crazy but a Macchi 202. I wonder how well the 32x version sold?...they seem to sell for decent money on ebay. Lots of very attractive schemes and killer looks.

I still say a Harrier. Relatively small for a jet, everyone thinks harriers are neat. Would appeal to both groundpounder guys and aircraft guys.
I agree! I think all those would do well! Would love a Macchi!

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Re: Badcat's "If I were a manufacturer"

Post by sdcc73 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:21 pm

vmf214 wrote:I'm not sure how a Helldiver would sell in 1:18.
I too was a little caught off guard. BUT if BCA says (and hard-numbers say) it has, does, and will do well; then it can likely do very well. Its very unique "Fore-and-Aft" canopy (see below) makes a unique plane. Dauntless is nice. But looks like the alreadily-at-market, Zero. Blue Angels themselves painted a Dauntless like a Zero in their 1st mock-battles / airshows. BCA said Cosairs + Hellcats sell well in various scales, as 1:18. BCA sees a pattern. E-tailers will pick it up to pair with their (best-selling) Cosairs + Hellcats. Add a Helldiver and their many customers who purchased Hellcats + Cosairs will definately want to pick up a Curtiss SB2C to complete their collections. Helldivers seem to defy business logic. But if you think about it, it becomes a very logical + obvious, "next step."

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