1/18 New Models, New Business Models

[gburch]

Inspired by the poll on "what do you think the future of the hobby is?" I'm starting a thread for discussion of ideas for new business models for the hobby.

Before I start, I have to say I don't have a lot of hope. One reason for this was the tepid response to my inquiry about "1/18 by the numbers:" Without some even minimally accurate quantitative information about market size and cost, there are some serious limitations on what can be done.

But with that intro, here are some more or less random ideas about factors, questions and issues that might have to go into developing some new business models.

** Assuming that the biggest risk in trying to create new 1/18 product is the danger of investment to create a stock of product that can't be sold, or can't be sold in a reasonable amount of time (i.e. relative to other uses of money), production of small lots is pobably an important foundation. This is obviously the basis of the "garage builders," but that seems to be more a personal passion than a business, and is subject to the problem of being exposed to personal interruptions of work-flow.

** Significant profit is probably not something that is going to seriously factor into any "alternative" business model -- at least at first, maybe not for a long time, and maybe not ever. The motivation will likely be personal passion of those involved, and of the potential base of buyers.

** "Subscription" is one concept I've considered from the very beginning of my entry into the hobby, when I realized I'd missed the Golden Age, and that I was getting into something where prices would be constantly rising and new models would be rare or nonexistent. By "subscription" I mean the notion that buyers would pay some or all of the purchase price up front, and buyers would assume a lot of risk up front. This is obviously an element of the established "garage builders." In the case of PH, it works very well -- but he's got an established track record of delivery and product quality. Without that track record, the subscription model is hard to get started with because there's not a reservoir of trust to build on.

** Setting aside the "chicken-and-egg" problem of trust in the subscription model for a moment, I've considered a concept of "amplified subscription" -- where a group might put money into a model sufficient to not only make their own model, but a run larger than necessary to provide one unit to each subscriber. One major legal problem with this is that it looks, walks and quacks like a "security," which brings on a whole host of regulatory overhead. This isn't necessarily insurmountable with some creative lawyering, but it's an issue.

** Machinery and tooling purchase is an issue I would so like to have more information about. I've seen SOME discussion of small-scale injection molding machinery in the same universe of people who created and use the MakerBot. Then there's "desktop CNC" for milling. There ARE people who are experimenting with and implementing the use of this kind of technology on a small, personal level. With the right level of commitment, I think it might JUST be possible now to actually create a CAD-based design, CNC tooling and injection-molding production line on a small scale, right here in the good ole US of A. But one person couldn't do it alone, of that I'm sure -- at least if he wants to keep a real job in the real world.

** But that brings me to the closest I've come to integrating this idea. I can IMAGINE a business model where individuals specialize in different parts of the production process on a personal basis and, TOGETHER, make up the whole business on a distributed basis. The whole integrated process would involve elements of all of the things mentioned above. It would require coordination and the ability to do things on a trial-and-error basis, especially at first.

I'm out of time to write now, but Id be interested to know what others' thoughts are on this subject.

[kimtheredxd]

I have seen the last idea of distributed production done in 1/6 scale items before. such as one or more persons makes the masters of parts. Another will do production runs of parts one would build one to show finished project and what would be involved doing so. TTT might have a far greater knowledge of this and maybe how well it worked.

[aferguson]

Kim!

My god woman, i thought you had abandoned us long ago. Nice to have you areound still. Not so many of us 'old timers' still here.

Not that i'm saying yer old or anything, mind you, i'm sure you're still in the flower of your youth.

[Threetoughtrucks]

Regarding Kim's comment on shared production. The 1/6 world has a number of online dealers selling finished models that have been produced piecemeal by different small manufacturers and assembled/painted by another party. Sometimes it works, sometimes individual buyers will opt for buying unpainted parts to add to their own models. Things like tank tracks and running gear in particular are a pain for the average guy to make.

I am in the process of putting together a M-10 Tank destroyer. The tank body came from one guy, the 160 track pads from another, metal rods for track pins pins (4 foot rods to be cut into hundreds of 2 " pins) from another company, running gear from another etailer. A long term product which may outlive me at this rate.

I think our future (both 1/18 and 1/6) lies in the small manufacturers production of small pieces or custom entire builds. I've been very happy with Pickel's 1/18 complete builds and Grunt's kit Pack Howitzer and am waiting now for a kit 1/6 Pz11 from DML.

Who knows what is on the horizon? Something for everybody.

TTT

[Jay]

** But that brings me to the closest I've come to integrating this idea. I can IMAGINE a business model where individuals specialize in different parts of the production process on a personal basis and, TOGETHER, make up the whole business on a distributed basis. The whole integrated process would involve elements of all of the things mentioned above. It would require coordination and the ability to do things on a trial-and-error basis, especially at first.

I've mentioned this a few times, but I would be interested in being involved in this type of system.
The problem (or challenge) about this system is the geograhical distance. It would certainly be viable for a group who are maybe in the same state (to limit courier costs), not out of the question for people in the same country.
However, going back to the beginning stages of a project where CAD could be used. It would be very easy to draw a model part and then just email a computer file to a user/machine in the US.
In other words, if something comes up. I would be interested in becoming part of a design process.

[gburch]

A quick note. I spent some time over the last couple of days looking into (relatively) low cost injection molding machines. Unfortunately, the ones that seem practical for low-rate / personal production are all built around a very small total mold size/volume. I checked with the manufacturer of what looks like the best established "benchtop" hand-press injector, and his machine won't scale up to something the size of, say a 1/18 fuselage half or whole-wing half. Machines that can handle larger pieces move up in price pretty quick into the high thousands to low tens of thousands of dollars.

Not encouraging, but I'm still looking. I can imagine a model broken up into smaller pieces that the available machines could handle, but that begins to shift a lot of effort onto the assembly part of the process, and feels like a kludge ...

[pickelhaube]

A quick note. I spent some time over the last couple of days looking into (relatively) low cost injection molding machines. Unfortunately, the ones that seem practical for low-rate / personal production are all built around a very small total mold size/volume. I checked with the manufacturer of what looks like the best established "benchtop" hand-press injector, and his machine won't scale up to something the size of, say a 1/18 fuselage half or whole-wing half. Machines that can handle larger pieces move up in price pretty quick into the high thousands to low tens of thousands of dollars.

Not encouraging, but I'm still looking. I can imagine a model broken up into smaller pieces that the available machines could handle, but that begins to shift a lot of effort onto the assembly part of the process, and feels like a kludge ...

The machines are pricey the moulds are even pricier

[gburch]

A quick note. I spent some time over the last couple of days looking into (relatively) low cost injection molding machines.

The machines are pricey the moulds are even pricier

Well, I'm pretty sure the mold-price problem can be absolutely killed dead with the kind of desktop CNC milling that's becoming available. Basically, the positional precision I've got with my MakerBot (which, BTW, I hope to get back to posting updates about later this weekend), is more than enough to cut a basically perfect mold out of basically any material you want (although, for various reasons, aluminum is probably the likely material for a mold made on a desktop CNC). I'm very hopeful that I will have such a machine by the end of this year or the beginning of next year at the latest.

Having done even more research on injection molding last night and now slept on it, I now know what the problem is: pressure. As mold size increases, pressure basically increases as a cubic factor, more or less. As you get to things like 1/18 fuselage or wing halves, you're talking BIG pressure. Big ... like tons and tons ... and tons. Unlike positional precision, which is basically a solved problem for desktop and benchtop machines, there's no substitute for MASS of METAL when you get into that kind of pressure. Which means BIG, which means EXPENSIVE.

So ... unless there's a "new business model" that somehow comes up with the capitalization for the machine and everything else that goes with it, injection molding is a dead end.

BUT ... that doesn't mean I'm giving up ....

[TankAce]

I am sure that there is a good profit in the 1/18 market
Forces of valor is still selling there 1/18 for quite a while. The reason is simple.There is much demand for 1/18 soldiers this days because the game industry is making modern and WWII games. In the 80's mattel and hasbro had record sales because of the 30 minute show propaganda. On this days we have the Game industry and modern 3d documentaries that has made learnig about modern and old warefare more fun.
When 21st century came out in 2000,i did not know much about WWII,but i got interested on the toys because compared to a rubberband style GI Joe and there bright colored tanks,ultimate soldier was a step in figure evolution.That is why they stay in retail stores for so long. Unfortunately,the figures had articulation problems.The break because the joint sticks.That provable led to many store returns. The action figure industry has evolve in the last 5 years.Modern figure such as 4" GI Joe will have as many points of articulation as a 12" figure.The figure sculpt has smaller head,longer legs making it more realistic than ever. People will not settle for anything less.
Making WWII toys will be a good idea,specially this days because of the growing popularity in WWII. Any body can see that ultimate soldier tanks and figures have been going up on price on ebay,while many other toys that where made by other companies at the same time has not going up if not go down on price.
I will say that is perfect time to make 1/18 scale military as long it is competitive in articulation and sculpt with GI Joe.