1/18 Sell Off, People Leaving Hobby/Scale

[Coreyeagle48]

Greetings:

Anyone notice how there seems to be a lot of 1/18 planes appearing on evilbay lately, especially some high dollar ones like the F-18 and F-16. It seems a lot of people are leaving the scale and the hobby as I've seen lots of planes lately. I can understand it, nothing new and many people simply run out of space.

When I see that type of thing I wonder how long this hobby can hang on. Especially with the excellent pieces in the smaller scales that are more detailed, better quality and offer more variety, not to mention you can get more of them.

I've bought more smaller scale stuff than 1/18 stuff the past couple years. I've also sold off a lot of my stocked 1/18 stuff I had stuck away. Kind of seems the hobby is running its course, even with Skyworks and All-Go in the game. What's the opinion of everyone else?

Just curious

Corey

[Aslav]

My theory Mister Eagle, is it is the follow on effect of the "Global Financial Crisis".
Hitting hard in the 1/18 world because of lack of support/releases from the major players.
I also collect 1/6 and vintage comics. I have been picking up a lot of things from evilBay.
I feel that people are liquidating their collectables as they can't afford to look at large collections anymore, when harsh financial realities hit home.
I felt the pinch in September last year when my take home pay was reduced by 20% due to shift reduction.


Or perhaps people are trying to make a buck of these collectables as new people "get on board" having missed the boom days of 1/18th.
Some pieces go for ridiculous prices on the rarer items.

[Tinman]

I'm not sure about people selling off their 1:18, but for my part, since there's been nothing new for a while except the F-14, I've opened my mind to other scales a bit.

Have the Hobby Master F-111 on pre-order and will see how I like it. If I do like it, will probably start collecting more HM jets (such as the F-101 if that's released).

I do love my 1:18, though, and have quite a stockpile!

[Beeavision]

There probably selling off their collections so they'll have enough cash to purchase the A-10 once its released. lol

[tmanthegreat]

I've noticed the spike in planes and other items on ebay as well. Most are priced high, but the occasional few are back down to normal retail prices or at least start off that way. The really rare items are still hard to find, but other items that were more common back in the day are appearing in greater number.

I agree with some of the above comments regarding the current economic conditions as being a major factor behind the recent sell-off - moreso than people getting fed up or tired of the hobby in general. As Corey and others noted as well, the lack of 1:18 goodies has caused me to dabble into other scales a little more. I've now got a couple more Hobbymaster 1:48 planes than I did a few months ago

[coreystinson]

I agree with some of the above comments regarding the current economic conditions as being a major factor behind the recent sell-off - moreso than people getting fed up or tired of the hobby in general.

Yes, I concur. I never understood the concept of leaving the hobby because new products weren't being released in a given scale, but I have heard one or two people claim to be doing that.

Still, I think it has more to do with economics and people noticing that they can sell these items out of their collection at a sometimes non-trivial profit. If one is scraping to get by, sometimes such opportunities look lucrative.

[bananapirate]

I think me and a handful of others have switched over to 1/16 for armor, since it's always expanding and there are quite a few manufacturers of them. on the other hand I'd still pick up 1/18 planes, but not currently since they take up so much space

[bobb428]

When i need money they are very easy to sell and when I got a little extra i pick another one up. Tough out there feeding a family of 5 on one income. And I have another hobbie that takes priority over all other hobbies.

[iflabs]

Yeap, 1/18 is pretty much dead to me. Slow releases and the lies, too much drama.

I can get almost anything I want in 1/72.

[fly-dk]

I am also thinking about leaving the 1/18-world.

Have the planes that I want - and I think I will focus on having them painted and customized instead.

I am so tired of all the promises and hot air about new products - it is like they are producing secret weapons and not "toys" for collectors

[pickelhaube]

I am starting to sell some of my " many extras "

But on the other hand I am doing my best to keep 1/18 armor " alive "

[normandy]

There maybe folks selling off parts, if not all of their 1:18th collections for what ever reasons...... I'm sticking with it!
I've collected enough figures, vehicles and armor ( would like a few more Panzer IV's and the KING TIGER ) and aircraft to keep me occupied for some time.
And Remember 1:18th still lives......... with products by Pickelhaube, Grunt, the HUN, Plasticboy and others.
Its still a great scale........... not 1:32nd and its not 1:6, just right for me.

[Buckyroo]

I do not consider my 1/18 scale airplane collection as dead (meaning that I will not get rid of it). If others want/need to sell then I will watch and wait for good deals on airplanes that I still need/want for my collection. I will expand my collection and continue to repaint spares. Even if companies start producing 1/18 airplanes again there may be some very big lag times to even get some of the items that have produced before like the Spitfires, FW 190Ds, P-47s. These are the ones that have been rumored be ones that cannot be made again from the same molds that 21st used, and so are good canidates to get some spares.

As for manufacturers considering the market dead due to all of the factors that have been posted above, well that might be a different story. I don't get excited about new product hype untill the items hit the shelves/estores. If 1/18 airplanes (WWII birds for me) don't return, I will be content with the ones I have.

[DocTodd]

I think people are selling to get cash. Especially if they can get a decent profit. I still like the scale and will be watching. I must admit having to focus on work more to make sure we are continuing to work efficiently has made it so it is a more distant hobby for me. I did get an F-14, but it took me 6 months to repaint it and hang it at my office.
T

[Threetoughtrucks]

The 1/18 hobby has always been populated with people that arrive and leave for various reasons, some honest and some who are just complainers about nobody producing the plane/vehicle THEY want to see, at the price THEY want to pay.

This hobby, as happens in almost all hobbies, is no different. I hear the same "1/6 is dead, because a decent tank is $1,000" and "1/1 MV collecting is dead because a good running Jeep now cost $5,000 and a good Stuart now costs $200,000". Prices raise, and raise. Don't like the scale? Goodbye.

The 1/18 hobby is at a low spot currently. Most of us will stick with it because we like the scale. Most of us have other scales to occupy our time while we wait. When we see no more "newbies" joining us, then we will have a problem, but I think that is not happening now.

TTT

[MCalamari]

I am starting to sell some of my " many extras "

But on the other hand I am doing my best to keep 1/18 armor " alive "

The 1/18 items I was picking up on ebay earlier this year were from people who had bought dupes.

I think that as long as there is a 1:18 star wars line (which should be good for years to come) that there will be some demand for 1:18 realistic military pieces.

I was at a toy store on Saturday and the guys ahead of me ended up buying some 1/6 military stuff ... they were totally excited. (The store did have some 1:18 Fw-190s for $100 a pop!)

-M

[VMF115]

I think I might leave the hobby for awhile....
Times are tough, money is short and the tax rate for small business are going to increase January 1st.

If the A-10 gets made it will be DOA. I don't see 1/18th gaining any traction except with gobs and gobs of repaints . that will be sold at higher prices then we would pay for them when they where at WM.


I hope I am wrong but I am doubtful.

[Jesse James]

A lot of older Star Wars collectors are bailing a lot these days too... And there is new stuff coming out, and in droves. Some are investing what they get back into things like (above) a classic car or harley or something... I can't blame anyone for that.

For some it's the economics, for some they just feel they grew out of it in some way... There's a lower number I know who get irked that everything they thought was valuable has been devalued by Hasbro, and they don't like the "exclusivity" of some stuff being ruined. *shrugs*

I agree though, I think with the 1:18 crowd people have seen dollar signs with Ebay prices and it looks like a good idea... in some cases it probably is if you really aren't into the planes or something, or don't have a specific attachment. I've not sold anything off yet, but the thought crossed my mind on some of the planes because they're not near/dear to me. They're also not in my way in any way, so I keep them around. I think if I needed the space though, I'd probably sell them all.

[NightVyper]

I am not bothered it just means more stuff for me.

[Bruzilla]

If 1/18 dies, it will be for the same reason that many similar product lines die - hoarders! For you older folks on the board, remember Cabbage Patch Kids dolls? These were really the first "it" toy that everyone wanted, and supply couldn't meet demand because you had people buying them who wanted the toy for their kids, and those who saw an opportunity to make money on secondary sales. Back then, manufacturers couldn't tell who was buying what.

Today, manufacturers can buy all sorts of retail metrics from retailers. These metrics show how their products are selling, and reveal if products are being sold to a large number of people over time (actual users), or to smaller groups of hoarders. Seeing products sold to a large number of users is great for a manufacturer as it shows them there is a vast market for their goods. But when they see their main consumers are hoarders, who buy several of the same items at one time, they know their consumer base is considerably narrower, hence any investment in making new items is far more risky. While it may seem there's no difference between selling 1,000 units to users and 1,000 units to hoarders, there is. The biggest difference is those 1,000 units sold to hoarders are going to come back on the market instead of being used, which forces a company to essentially compete against its own product to sell the next 1,000 units. McFarlane has gotten around this problem by offering several versions, in escalating rarity, of each sports figure it sells, which forces hoarders to buy far more cases of their figures than they normally would.

Before anyone goes off damning the manufacturers, you might want to fist damn the people who are actually killing the hobby: The Hoarders. If more people would buy these models and display them, rather than hoard them and try to resell for profit, manufacturers would be quicker to release new products.

[Dauntless]

Even at the Walmart price of $40, there's no way many could hoard these items.

I was lucky to have a good paying job to afford one of most everything 21st made. Now that there are mostly repaints of ones I already have by JSI, my buying has waned, but my interest in the hobby hasn't.

There at the end when 21st went out of business, I'll bet there was a lot of hoarding by those reselling them, but the point is mute when they are already out of business. Then there is no correlation to hoarding and the manufacturer.

I'll bet 21st wished we all were hoarding and buying those 1:18 planes that were sitting on the shelves at Walmart for months and months, but when they went out of business, presto they were gone in no time.

[Buckyroo]

Even at the Walmart price of $40, there's no way many could hoard these items.

I was lucky to have a good paying job to afford one of most everything 21st made. Now that there are mostly repaints of ones I already have by JSI, my buying has waned, but my interest in the hobby hasn't.

There at the end when 21st went out of business, I'll bet there was a lot of hoarding by those reselling them, but the point is mute when they are already out of business. Then there is no correlation to hoarding and the manufacturer.

I'll bet 21st wished we all were hoarding and buying those 1:18 planes that were sitting on the shelves at Walmart for months and months, but when they went out of business, presto they were gone in no time.

I wish I would have hoarded all of the 1/18 airplanes that I saw, I could be doing repaints for a long time even if no one else picks up production.

[Bruzilla]

Even at the Walmart price of $40, there's no way many could hoard these items.

I was lucky to have a good paying job to afford one of most everything 21st made. Now that there are mostly repaints of ones I already have by JSI, my buying has waned, but my interest in the hobby hasn't.

There at the end when 21st went out of business, I'll bet there was a lot of hoarding by those reselling them, but the point is mute when they are already out of business. Then there is no correlation to hoarding and the manufacturer.

I'll bet 21st wished we all were hoarding and buying those 1:18 planes that were sitting on the shelves at Walmart for months and months, but when they went out of business, presto they were gone in no time.

It's amazing how much people are willing to pay for stuff if they think they can make even a little money on it. $40 is nothing in the grand scheme of things if you think you can make $100 in the near future.

21st has been out of the game for a while, but how often do you see a OOB/used plane on the secondary market? You're apt to find far more NRFB/Mint planes for sale than used ones. And why are all these NRFB planes around? Because they were bought by people who had no intent of taking them out and displaying them, as they were intended, and instead had them sitting in the closet, waiting till the price points got right or until they needed some quick cash.

I guarantee you that hoarding was one of the reasons 21st went out of the business. Companies just can't afford to compete with themselves for very long. Here's an example of what I mean. Back a few years ago, when 21st was making 1/18th P-40Bs and FW190s, the P-40Bs were flying off the shelves. I would walk into the local WalMarts, hoping to find just one, but all there would be was a shelf with ten FW190s on it. Checking with store personnel, I learned that the problem wasn't the P-40s selling too fast, but because they weren't coming in at all... just the FW190s.

A check of ebay showed a half dozen or more P-40Bs for sale at any one time, with starting prices at or below the original retail cost, which after bids and shipping would be well above retail (hence why I was still looking for one at the retail level). Every one of those P-40s represented a sales loss for 21st. Instead of being taken out of the box and displayed, opening the market for another plane to be made and sold, these planes were coming back on the market as competition against 21st. The result was that 21st cut back on the models that were causing them losses, and ramped up ones that weren't... until they started showing up en masse on the secondary market. The real problem is that when a company like 21st looks at its bottom line, and sees profits for each product going down much faster than expected, they're going to be real slow in making investments in the tooling needed to develop new products as the ROI just isn't there, which leads to companies eventually dropping out of the market, like 21st did.

[Threetoughtrucks]

I was never a "hoarder", I wanted one of every vehicle/tank that 21C put out and did that... all were on display.

Then I would find super buys, like the day TRU had 1/18 CC's on sale for $2.50. Who could resist that? I cleared the shelf (I left one for somebody else). That was the start and with 1/6 CC's on clearance for $40. My garage started to fill up and ending with MD and their sale on boxes of all kinds of stuff.... hell, I even bought an Avenger. It has to be a great sale if I am buying a plane.

Super sales are gone. Hoarders will always exist and there will always be money around to buy stuff. Some guys will always have hard times where priorities must be changed, but there will always be government employees with extra money to buy and people on the government dole with more money than they ever expected, and there will always be skilled people making money no matter what happens. I'm in one of those categories, lucky me.....

So my garage will be stocked for awhile. I sell or trade stuff, making a few bucks and buy what I want.

TTT

[MCalamari]

The person I was buying seconds wanted one in box and one to display ... which is common. I think many of the duplicates were bought on sale, at least the 21c stuff. The Admiral duplicates were probably just bought.

I myself like doubles, one for my collection, one for my brother and if his sons take an interest in the stuff for them (and they do, when they come over they wander to my "train" room and sit on the ground next to the planes and just like to spin the props.