1/18 Sell Off, People Leaving Hobby/Scale

[Bruzilla]

If you're buying stuff up at clearance sasles, you're not a part of the problem. The problem is folks going in and buying the new releases. Like at WalMart, every time the scan an item, the price is added to your total. At the same time, their computer is registering every item that is leaving the store, deducting that item from inventory, and generating orders for new items from the distribution center once inventory reaches a certain threshold. WalMart also sells that information back to distributors so they can see exactly how their product is selling.

Going back to the P-40s, they would have seen stores adding say ten new units per order, then seeing those units going out the door in short order and in groups of two or more. That's the pattern buying of hoarders, and is easy to pick out from sales data. When manufacturers see that, they can bet their goods are going to be coming back at them on the secondary market.

[immeww2]

I think that people who are reselling NIB items are doing so partly because the rate of returns on these items are much better than what you can expect in today's stock market.

[MCalamari]

A lot of older Star Wars collectors are bailing a lot these days too... And there is new stuff coming out, and in droves. Some are investing what they get back into things like (above) a classic car or harley or something... I can't blame anyone for that.

True, but as 3T suggested the important thing is if new collectors are coming in behind them.

In the case of Star Wars, judging by both Halloween and watching others at Target look at the new figures, I think new blood is replacing the old. Halloween last year I was visited by 3-4 jedi and a couple of clone troopers (I give additional star wars miniature to all the star wars kids ... so I'm probably known as a star wars house now). At the stores I've seen plenty of college kids grabbing a figure or two (not just guys anymore ... I'm seeing female coeds sneak a figure in their baskets too).

That said, it will cycle. I think gone is the collector who wanted one of everything in pristine condition. Though I remember a group of that of collectors from the old usenet days, and frankly they weren't really fun.

[CENT-ONE]

@bruzilla - honestly, you're giving the marketing analysis dept of 21st waaayyyy too much credit.

21st went down (several times) for many reasons. I'm pretty sure that people "hoarding" more than one plane from WM at a time didn't have much to do with their bottom line.

[iflabs]

If 1/18 dies, it will be for the same reason that many similar product lines die - hoarders!

Hoarders were the least bit of the problem in this hobby. I know it is a consistent issue with other collectibles, but not 1/18 planes. I was always able to find what I needed in retail...and much more.

It wasn't actually until 21st/BBi slowed down with releases that demand started increasing.

[Buckyroo]

How much of the WalMart in store stock/hoarding and reselling issues can be attributed to the very poor WalMart distribution. I do beleive that we have had discussions here before about how poorly the items were destributed at the stores. Stores would get a bunch of one airplane and not an even distribution of many different planes. That in itself lends to hoarding and or reselling.

[pickelhaube]

How much of the WalMart in store stock/hoarding and reselling issues can be attributed to the very poor WalMart distribution. I do beleive that we have had discussions here before about how poorly the items were destributed at the stores. Stores would get a bunch of one airplane and not an even distribution of many different planes. That in itself lends to hoarding and or reselling.

Bruzilla

I am not sure if you were able to collect these when they hit Walmart but I was . I lived the era.

Bucky is right. The undoing of 21st was Walmart . Not the hoarders.

One store got 50 of the same airplanes. The stores around it did not get any 2-3 weeks later the 40 planes left were put on sale.

Boy did I make out on that. If the Walmart distributers diveyed up the 50 and spread those planes out to the other Walmarts things would have been different.

Like Buck said. That was the demise of 21st in a nut shell.

Putting most of their eggs in Walmarts basket and those eggs were put in 100 walmarts not the 1,500 nation wide.

[c44]

...hoarders are bad for toy manufacturers like hungry people are bad for restaurants...and yes, we have had endless discussions about WM distribution...nuthin' new to be said...

[snake]

With the lack of new releases, it will be increasingly hard to keep interest in 1/18 going.At least for the more casual collector.

And with new releases[F-14] costing $250, you have to be pretty dedicated to spend that amount of money.And don't get me started on the cost of the A-10.Hard to bring in new blood at these price points.

So for the time being, it looks like we will just be recycling the previous releases.And these can still be had for reasonable prices for now.

Repaints, and customs, are probably going to be the way to go for the hardcore 1/18 collector.And thankfully there are a few guys doing this.

1/18 has never been my primary scale.I collect a broad range of scales, and subjects.But I do like the scale, and think that it is still a fantastic value.It would be a shame to see it go into permanent hibernation.

But I fear that future releases will be much more expensive, and therefore more of a specialty market.

Not sure how to solve this problem.

[Birddog]

And don't get me started on the cost of the A-10.

What's funny is that no one knows yet what the A-10 will cost, it's all been assumptions. Skyworks is involved and they sale high priced models...true. However, if All-Go is truly involved in this, it may turn out to be offered at a price many are hoping it will. Keep your fingers crossed.

[MCalamari]

So what is a reasonable price these days?

I think $40 is a *steal*, and even $60 all-in is a great deal.

The reason I ask is that the $75-80 range for the JSI repaints seems fair. Why do I say this? I'm comparing the quality of even released planes to the 1:18 Star Wars items coming out. While some of the smaller 1:18 SW items (like the new snowspeeder and twin-pod cloud car are steals at $25), the larger vehicles start to command big prices too!

[Dauntless]

The Star Wars Gunships are getting ridiculous. Talk about hoarders turning profits.

I think the $70-80-100 range is about right (for a new mold) 1:18 plane. (not the huge jets of course)

Speaking of P-40's, I remember getting both Taylor and Welch for $25 a piece. They were the last ones I saw at Walfart in a stack of many. Well that and that gawd-awful tiger striped F-104 which I didn't buy, but I got a "Smoke" for $20.

If they'd have been P-40E's I'd have bought every last one of them because of the endless repaint possibilities and felt no shame..but alas.

[Coreyeagle48]

Greetings:

Thanks for all the interesting comments. Really good insight by all.

I was holding several pieces until this year when I finally decided I can use the space for other stuff. I collect across scales and basically if I like it, I buy it, so for me, holding stuff just doesn't make much sense. I also felt that I didn't need any doubles in my collection anymore, and that having one was enough. I slowly want to get out of 1/18 and collect smaller pieces. I don't have the time to keep my 1/18 stuff as clean as I like nor the room to truly display it properly. Plus the variety in smaller scales is just so tempting.

I think the economy has done it as well like some people said. I've sold a few pieces to fund some airshow traveling this year and take the burden off my wallet. Some of my pieces also got me a good camera without dipping deep into the wallet. Other stuff I just said I don't need it and moved on.

There's always going to be dedicated 1/18 collectors but less variety and higher prices may make them few and far between.

Corey

[Jesse James]

I can't say I agree on the "hoarders" bit either... In other hobbies people who buy stuff to resell for profit (now, or later) are generally just known as "scalpers", so I assume we're talking the same thing here...

I rarely ever saw 21st's stuff fly off the shelves due to "scalpers" being a problem though. Stuff even on clearance didn't necessarilly move super fast, it just moved steady.

I think 21st had problems with WM, I agree there... WM's a rough partner to deal with. At the same time though I think they shot themselves in the foot trying to put too much big stuff out in too rapid a succession... Too many planes, too many repaints of planes, etc. They needed to set a more steady schedule. And I've said it before and I'll say it again; They needed to focus on smaller and work their way up. Build a larger figure base, and smaller vehicle/pieces. Then work up to maybe 2 to 4 "large" (plane/tank) items in a year. Try to squeeze in new smaller items more frequently and relatively steadily.

They also needed to work with the etailers more closely, to make themselves separate from WM a little bit (the all the eggs in one basket scenario you guys mentioned). Try to do exclusive repaints for the etailers, and try to cater case ratios to them more closely.

WM wasn't the only problem though. They were a symptom of a number of things going wrong.

[norman888]

They also needed to work with the etailers more closely, to make themselves separate from WM a little bit

WM probably made 21st go into some type of "agreement" about who else and how many they sell to.

[Jesse James]

I dunno... They were still distributing to Etailers. They should've at least offered exclusives to etailers so they didn't paint themselves into a corner, if that was a problem. WM can only control you so much before you're doing things to shoot yourself in the foot.

[Dauntless]

If you remember, Toys R Us used to be the exclusive retailer. Then Walmart picked them up and they changed the name to Motorworks for a while. The red flame packaging on some items and the name sucked IMO. Wonder who came up with that bright idea?

[Boyx3]

I for one can no longer afford to be in the 1/18th scale hobby...and in fact have been slowly and begrudgingly selling off my items at near cost! If I can I will keep maybe two planes for sentimental reasons..but then again I might have to just let them go also. food or planes..it's a tough call.

although I have considered eating my youngest child...before he gets all tough and gamey.

[usmcchet9296]

Its just the economy. Its real bad right now for alot of us. 1/18th scale has been around for along time. I remember collecting GiJoes in the 80's when I was a kid and lets not forget Star Wars. Right now the hobbie is in a slump with the rest of us. Im not getting rid of any of my opened stuff but I am getting rid of some boxed stuff just because like some here Im unemployed and need the money. I am looking forward to getting stuff when I start working and when and if its released (King Tiger, A-10) as long as its reasonably priced (hint hint AlLGo/Sky Works) but will not pay a premium for something anymore. I do have other hobbies and when a toy/model costs more than my other interests (guns and such) than I pass. No the hobbie isnt in decline its just waiting till times are better like the rest of us.

[ram04]

I don't believe people are leaving 1/18, its probably because 1/18 scale for manufacturers is not a big seller, Heng Long and others are putting out 1/16 R/C tanks and it seems they are growing, what I don't understand is why they don't put out a static line of tanks in that scale.

Seems like they could make a profit on a untapped market. I would buy a 1/16 static, most my R/C don't see much action anyway.

[hotrodrock]

It's not all economy. I fully agree with ram04 about the 1/16 rc manufacturers. They don't seem to have been slowed down too much by an off economy. It was more the endless repaints of the same old molds, not to say the economy didn't have some part in it. In the 1/16 line, there is a huge aftermarket supply of accessories for armor that have nothing to do with the actual rc part of the vehicle. I can't wait for the release of the 1/16 jagdtiger. Even though I have all the 1/18 stuff, I am not one of the "give me 1/18 or give me death" folks, otherwise I would be dead.

[toyktdlgh]

For me it’s the lack of new products and the rise in cost of existing items. I’m happier when I have the ability to buy something new every once in a while. I’ll probably sell off some more items in the future and commit to 1:48 if nothing changes.

[pokeyjtc]

I have been doing other things to scratch my collecting itch lately (collecting vintage hockey jerseys). The lack of anything new in 1/18th scale has really lessened my interest. Plus, I'm just about out of storage space.

I've been considering selling off a good portion of my collection for about the past 6 months and will probably do so starting in the next month or so. I plan on selling most of my figures and ground vehicles and some of my extra planes. I could really stand to free up some space and some cash. I'd like to get another classic musclecar as it has been a few years since I last owned one. Any extra cash I can get out of some of my dormant hobbies to go towards that goal is helpful.

I won't leave 1/18 altogether, but right now I see a big reduction in my collection in the near future.

[MCalamari]

I don't believe people are leaving 1/18, its probably because 1/18 scale for manufacturers is not a big seller, Heng Long and others are putting out 1/16 R/C tanks and it seems they are growing, what I don't understand is why they don't put out a static line of tanks in that scale.

Seems like they could make a profit on a untapped market. I would buy a 1/16 static, most my R/C don't see much action anyway.

I wouldn't if it were my company. The goal of a company shouldn't be to move into a new market just because, but to specialize at doing what they can do best.

HL makes great RC tanks.

[gofastgtr]

The majority of my collection is already sold. I just had to weigh the options. Buying a house and actually affording it took priority. I still have a few on display, and I have my TT and the signed Old Crows. But everything else is pretty much gone. Those might be going soon too, but they'll be hard to part with.